After a relatively small Thursday slate that saw one of our picks’ games get postponed, I’m back to break down a much stronger Friday card. We’re running it back with my top pick from yesterday, who is a member of the Giants, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the D-backs. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Giants-Rockies and Cubs-Diamondbacks. We’re trusting Mike Yastrzemski at Coors Field once again.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, September 15
Giants-Rockies Home Run Pick
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Yastrzemski at DraftKings
We got action on left-handed hitter Mike Yastrzemski to go yard on Thursday, but the game got rained out, so we’re running this back tonight. The San Francisco Giants are in Coors Field this weekend, and the Colorado Rockies will trot out RHP Chase Anderson, as they were planning to yesterday. Tonight marks Yaz’s 28th start at Coors Field, and across 126 plate appearances and 109 at-bats here, the slugger has 10 home runs and is slashing .312/.397/.679. He is yet to clear the fences — or record a hit, for that matter — in Coors Field this year despite starting twice and making nine trips to the plate.
Yaz matches up perfectly against Anderson. The 35-year-old RHP has not been good this year. He owns a 5.46 xERA (10th percentile) and a .472 xSLG. Anderson has coughed up 17 actual and 14.6 expected home runs across 68 innings pitched. Eight of those home runs have come in his home park. Yaz hasn’t just been fantastic at Coors Field, he has been effective against Anderson and other RHPs. He has 11 home runs and is slashing .273/.367/.528 against RHPs this year alone. He is also slashing .429/.429/.714 against Anderson through nine plate appearances.
But it’s not just Yaz’s splits that are impressive: his overall stats are strong as well. He owns a .445 xSLG, which is in the 67th percentile, to go with an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph — the highest of his career — which is in the 72nd. I strongly advise getting some exposure to more than just Yaz’s home run prop. Pair this with a wager on Yaz to record multiple bases at odds of -105 (51.2%) via DraftKings, which you can boost up to +143 (41.2%) for the first $25.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mike Yastrzemski +370 at DraftKings
Cubs-Diamondbacks Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
OddsShopper’s Target: Tommy Pham at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Cubs-Diamondbacks game. The model wants a ticket on RHH Tommy Pham at odds of +800 (11.1%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. The 35-year-old Pham has been an effective batter, mashing 16 actual and 17.2 expected home runs, 18 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Chase Field. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Pham and the D-backs will line up against LHP Justin Steele and the Chicago Cubs tonight. Steele is having a solid season and owns an impressive 16-3 record. However, his 2.49 ERA isn’t sustainable relative to his 3.41 xERA, which is in the 79th percentile. Steele has coughed up only 11 actual and 11.2 expected home runs this year, but it’s worth noting that 12 of those hits would’ve gone yard at Chase Field. He has also performed worse against LHBs, allowing them to hit five home runs while slashing .248/.302/.444. Pham has hit nine home runs against LHPs and is slashing .248/.329/.489 against them.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +706 (12.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Tommy Pham +800 at FanDuel
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