The OddsShopper model cashed a +800 ticket for Joey Meneses on Monday before hitting a +350 ticket for Cal Raleigh on Tuesday. It didn’t have a pick yesterday, but it’s back with more action today. I want action on a Dodger, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Royal. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Giants-Dodgers and Royals-Astros. We’re trusting Mookie Betts in Dodger Stadium this evening.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, Sept. 22
Giants-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Isaiah’s Target: Mookie Betts at DraftKings
I know what you must be thinking. “Isaiah, why do you keep betting on the Dodgers when they keep letting you down?” I hear you. But as an Atlanta Braves fan, this Los Angeles Dodgers team is historically good. As a team, they own an xwOBA of .344. Last year, no team recorded higher than a .330; in 2021, no team beat .338. The last time we saw an offense clear the .340 bar in the metric was 2020, when five offenses did it, but, in the Statcast era — excluding the shortened 2020 season — only two teams have accomplished the feat.
RHH Mookie Betts has been instrumental to the Dodgers’ success and leads the team in the xwOBA He also owns a .295 xBA (96th percentile) to go with a .571 xSLG (98th percentile) and has mashed 39 actual and 36.4 expected home runs, 37 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. Betts has hit 25 of his home runs in his home park and is slashing .336/.431/.668 here. He’ll take on LHP Sean Manaea today. Betts has hit 14 home runs and is slashing .306/.426/.694 against LHPs. That home run number is all the more impressive because 35.9% of his dingers have come in the 20.5% of his at-bats against LHPs.
This gets us to our biggest point: Manaea is bad. Earlier in the year, the Giants were using him in bulk relief after an opener to try and compensate for his underperformance, but they’re back to using him as a starter. Manaea is firmly below average with his 4.50 xERA (37th percentile), .251 xBA (39th percentile) and 89.3 mph average exit velocity (41st percentile). Betts has 26 career at-bats against Manaea and has three home runs while slashing .385/.448/.962. Back him to record multiple bases at odds of -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings, which you can boost up to +142 for the first $50.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mookie Betts +310 at DraftKings
Royals-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
OddsShopper’s Target: Bobby Witt Jr. at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s Royals-Astros matchup. The Royals aren’t contending for anything this year, but they’re at least not the worst team in baseball. They enter tonight’s action on a three-game winning streak and actually took a series against the Houston Astros before sweeping the Cleveland Guardians. The model wants action on RHH Bobby Witt Jr. at +680 (12.8%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. Witt has hit 29 actual and 28.7 expected home runs this season. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Witt will take on LHP Framber Valdez, which is a tough draw, but Valdez isn’t unbeatable when it comes to the long ball. He has coughed up 18 actual and 19.1 expected home runs this year. RHHs like Witt account for 14 of those home runs, and they’re slashing .230/.280/.358 against him — not great numbers, but not bad enough to pass on Witt at this number. Witt has mashed eight home runs against LHPs and is slashing .301/.333/.526 against them on the year. He is yet to record a hit against Valdez, but with 10 mph winds blowing out of Minute Maid Park tonight, there is a first time for everything.
The model doesn’t care about stats, splits or even the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +500 (16.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +640 (13.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Bobby Witt Jr. +680 at FanDuel
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