With only a few games remaining before the MLB playoffs, we’ve only got a few massive slates left before we’re down to much shorter cards. Tonight, I want action on an Astro to go yard, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Mariner. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Astros-D-backs and Rangers-Mariners. We’re riding with Yordan Alvarez in his home park this evening.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, Sept. 29
Astros-D-backs Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Isaiah’s Target: Yordan Alvarez at DraftKings
There isn’t much meaningful baseball back, but tonight’s Astros-D-backs game has consequences for both teams involved. The Houston Astros are one game to the green in the AL Wild Card race, but the Seattle Mariners are hot on their heels. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a good spot to take an NL Wild Card berth, and they’ll lock one up with either a win or a Chicago Cubs loss. Houston has far more on the line today, and I recommend getting some action on LHH Yordan Alvarez in this spot.
Alvarez draws a matchup with RHP Zac Gallen. After a dominant start to the year, Gallen has cooled down. He owns a 4.45 ERA in September, up from his 3.49 ERA on the year. Gallen has coughed up 22 actual and 22.6 expected home runs this season. Most of the damage has been done by LHHs, who have 14 home runs and a .245/.296/.409 slash line against him. This directly benefits Alvarez, who has mashed 25 home runs against RHPs with a slash line of .290/.422/.635. Alvarez just went yard in last night’s win over Seattle and has homered in three of his last four games.
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It’ll be hard for Alvarez to stay this hot, but with playoff positioning on the line, I expect him to do so. He may even get to face some bad relievers late if the Cubs beat the Brewers before this game comes to an end. It certainly helps that Alvarez has been one of the MLB’s best bats this year — he has 31 actual and 31.6 expected home runs to his name, and his .297 xBA (96th percentile) and .630 xSLG (99th percentile) are both elite. Back him to go yard at +340 (22.7%) via DraftKings Sportsbook and record multiple bases at +115 (46.5%).
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Yordan Alvarez +340 at DraftKings
Rangers-Mariners Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
OddsShopper’s Target: Teoscar Hernandez at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which, again, comes in a meaningful Rangers-Mariners contest. The model wants exposure to RHH Teoscar Hernandez, who has mashed 26 actual and 27.2 expected home runs this year, 33 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Seattle. The odds of +420 (19.2%) at FanDuel Sportsbook are too long to justify not getting action on this market. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Hernandez has an unenviable matchup with RHP Nathan Eovaldi, but, fortunately for him, Eovaldi’s hot start to the season has completely evaporated. The RHP has a 7.41 ERA in September with five home runs allowed over 17 innings pitched. Eovaldi has allowed only 13 actual and 16 expected home runs this year, but 19 of those would’ve cleared the fences in Seattle, and his recent slump makes him a sharp target. Hernandez has faced Eovaldi for 17 plate appearances, through which he has a home run and four extra-base hits with a slash line of .357/.471/.857.
The model doesn’t care about stats or splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +320 (23.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +389 (20.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting plenty of value by playing this MLB home run pick at +420 (19.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Teoscar Hernandez +420 at FanDuel
OddsShopper MLB Tools & Tips
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