After hitting a +560 ticket on Gunnar Henderson on Monday, we cashed a +115 ticket on Jake Fraley’s total bases. Those wins are nice, but they’re not home runs, and I want dingers. I’ve got an angle for one player on the Atlanta Braves, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a member of the Colorado Rockies. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Cardinals-Braves and Rockies-Diamondbacks. We’re trusting Ronald Acuna Jr. to bounce back at home against RHP Dakota Hudson.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, September 6
Cardinals-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Isaiah’s Target: Ronald Acuna Jr. at FanDuel
The Atlanta Braves will host the St. Louis Cardinals again today, and it’s a great spot to target RHB Ronald Acuna Jr. The MVP candidate was on fire just a few days ago but is now coming off back-to-back hitless performances. I expect him to bounce back in this spot against RHP Dakota Hudson. Acuna has excelled against same-handed pitching this season. He is slashing .334/.410/.581 against RHPs this year with 26 home runs. Acuna has 33 actual and 32.4 expected home runs on the year, 39 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Truist Park.
Hudson is a good fade for a few reasons, but his terrible expected stats are a good place to start. Hudson owns a 5.08 xERA, which is in the 18th percentile, to go with 20th percentile fastball velocity and exit velocity allowed. Hudson only throws his four-seam fastball 21.5% of the time, preferring to rely on his sinker (39.1%) and slider (32%), but Acuna’s 99th percentile xSLG (.647) barely changes against those pitches — it sits at .613 for sinkers, .692 for sliders and .628 for four-seam fastballs.
We’re also fading Hudson because he struggles against same-handed batters and when playing outside of St. Louis. RHBs are slashing .252/.331/.432 against Hudson with four home runs. Hudson’s 5.40 ERA on the road, where he has allowed four home runs in just 16.2 innings pitched, is another important note — especially with Truist Park favoring batters. Let’s back Acuna to go yard at +400 (20%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Pair this with a wager on him to record multiple bases at odds of -155 (60.8%) at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. +400 at FanDuel
Rockies-Diamondbacks Home Run Pick
When: 3:40 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
OddsShopper’s Target: Hunter Goodman at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which you’ll have to tail early. It comes on one of the early afternoon games, Rockies-Diamondbacks. The model wants exposure to rookie RHB Hunter Goodman at odds of +800 (11.1%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Goodman has yet to hit an actual home run but has 0.2 expected home runs through 28 at-bats. However, Goodman hit 34 home runs in the minors this season alone. Note that nine other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Goodman draws a matchup against RHP Zach Davies. Davies has been a fade all season, as his 6.45 ERA suggests, coughing up eight actual and 8.4 expected home runs over 68.1 innings pitched. Half of those home runs were hit by RHBs, who are slashing .284/.346/.474 against Davies this year. Goodman feasted against same-handed batters in the minors for 24 home runs. Although the 23-year-old rookie lacks major-league experience, he has a good matchup for those interested in getting action on him to go yard.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +698 (12.5%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Hunter Goodman +800 at FanDuel
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