The MLB playoffs are quickly approaching, so let’s take the time we have left to maximize our returns on the baseball betting markets. Tonight, I want action on a Ranger to go yard, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Mariner. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Rangers-Angels and Astros-Mariners. We’re trusting Corey Seager in Angel Stadium this evening.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Tuesday, Sept. 26
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
Rangers-Angels Home Run Pick
When: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, Cal.
Isaiah’s Target: Corey Seager at FanDuel
The odds for this one aren’t great, but we’re trusting LHH Corey Seager to go yard at Angel Stadium today. The Texas Rangers are one of the few teams playing meaningful baseball at this point in the season — at 88-68, they hold a narrow 2.5-game lead over the Houston Astros for the AL West. The good news for them is that they have the long-since-eliminated Angels on the schedule before they have to head to Seattle to face the Mariners, who may or may not be eliminated at that point. Seager draws a matchup with LHP Reid Detmers, who is struggling with the long ball this year.
This is a good matchup for Seager, who is already one of the MLB’s best bats in any given situation. His .320 xBA (99th percentile), .629 xSLG (99th percentile) and 93.6 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile) are all among the MLB’s best. He has also mashed 33 actual and 31.1 expected home runs, 34 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium. Meanwhile, Detmers’ .252 xBA (36th percentile) and 90 mph average exit velocity (23rd percentile) are well below the league average. He has coughed up 19 actual and 16.8 expected home runs, 19 of which would’ve gone yard at his home park.
The splits also favor Seager — albeit slightly. Detmers struggles against same-handed hitters, allowing them to hit six home runs while slashing .301/.383/.522 across 113 at-bats. Seager fares worse against same-handed pitchers but still has seven home runs against them and a slash line of .318/.350/.543. Seager has lined up against Detmers 19 times and has three hits and a home run against him — not great numbers, but, with Detmers regressing year-over-year, Seager’s early lack of production makes sense. It’s time for him to take advantage of Detmers, so look for him to do that tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Corey Seager +320 at FanDuel
Astros-Mariners Home Run Pick
When: 10 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
OddsShopper’s Target: Cal Raleigh at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in the late Mariners-Astros matchup. SH Cal Raleigh is a sharp bet to go yard in this spot — if this game doesn’t get rained out. He’ll benefit from 11.4 mph winds blowing out through left field if the action gets underway this evening. The model wants action on him at odds of +310 (24.4%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Raleigh draws a great matchup against one of my top pitchers to fade, RHP Cristian Javier. Javier has coughed up 25 actual and 29.5 expected home runs this season. He is an average or above-average pitcher in most metrics, but his 4.56 xERA (34th percentile) and 10% barrel rate (18th percentile) are both causes for concern, as is his 26.4% ground-ball rate (first percentile). Raleigh has three hits and one home run in six career at-bats against Javier, which bodes poorly for the Houston pitcher.
The model doesn’t care about stats, splits or even the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +235 (29.9%). Our model thinks a fair price is +289 (25.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +310 (24.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Cal Raleigh +310 at FanDuel
