After a losing Monday (I don’t write this column on Tuesdays), we got back to our winning ways by cashing a +400 ticket on Freddie Freeman last night. I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into a tiny Thursday slate that features just three games starting after 6 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Braves-Dodgers and Marlins-Nationals. We’re trusting superstar Matt Olson to bring the heat against Atlanta’s NL rivals in a potential NLCS preview.
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, August 31
Braves-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Isaiah’s Target: Matt Olson at FanDuel
Sometimes chalk is good. Matt Olson is a popular home run pick tonight, and the odds reflect it — you’ll find him priced at +215 (31.8%) at DraftKings but +255 (28.2%) at FanDuel. Olson has mashed 43 actual and 40.2 expected home runs in 132 games played, 41 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. That gives us one home run for every 3.1 games or a win rate of 32.6% — a higher number than what’s available at both DraftKings and FanDuel. So even though the books are pricing this one up, there is still value to exploit.
The matchup couldn’t be better for Olson. He’ll take on RHP Lance Lynn, who has coughed up 34 actual and 32.9 expected home runs this year, 34 of which would’ve counted as home runs in Dodger Stadium. Lynn has fared especially poorly against opposite-handed batters like Olson, coughing up 19 home runs and a .571 SLG to them. Likewise, Olson has bared best against opposite-handed pitchers, mashing 34 homer runs for a .604 SLG against them.
Individual pitch splits and advanced stats should sell you on this wager. Olson owns an elite .561 xSLG, which is in the 97th percentile, to go with MLB-leading numbers in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Most importantly, Olson owns a .568 xSLG and 68.1% hard-hit rate against four-seam fastballs, which Lynn throws 43.1% percent of the time despite poor velocity. The +255 (28.7%) odds aren’t great, but let’s pair this with a wager on Olson to record multiple bases at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson +255 at FanDuel
Marlins-Nationals Home Run Pick
When: 7 p.m. ET
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
OddsShopper’s Target: Joey Meneses at FanDuel
It’s time to feature one of OddsShopper’s picks, which comes on Marlins-Nationals. The model thinks there is a slight value on Joey Meneses at odds of +700 (12.5%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Meneses has mashed 11 actual and 12.1 expected home runs this year, 12 of which would’ve been home runs at Nationals Park. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Meneses will line up against the Marlins and LHP Braxton Garrett. Garrett has coughed up 18 actual and 19.5 expected home runs this season, 19 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Nationals Park. Garrett also owns a .449 xSLG allowed, which is in the 21st percentile. He has struggled against opposite-handed batters like Meneses, coughing up 15 home runs and a .464 SLG to them. In contrast, Meneses has thrived against opposite-handed pitchers, going yard twice in 154 at-bats with a .435 SLG.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +698 (12.5%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +700 (12.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Meneses +700 at FanDuel
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
