We cashed a +450 ticket on Christopher Morel on Monday, and I’m looking to roll that momentum forward into tonight’s MLB slate. I want action on one member of the Orioles, OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the Yankees, so let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Cardinals-Orioles and Yankees-Red sox. We’re trusting Ryan Mountcastle at home against the not-so-great Cardinals.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, September 13
Cardinals-Orioles Home Run Pick
When: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Isaiah’s Target: Ryan Mountcastle at DraftKings
The Baltimore Orioles will line up against the St. Louis Cardinals again tonight, and it’s a smash spot for RHB Ryan Mountcastle. The 26-year-old first baseman got a night off but was used as a pinch-hitter last night, likely because of his recent cold spell. Mountcastle is slashing .269/.325/.453 on the year but has gone .056/.227/.056 over the last seven days. However, this is the perfect get-right spot for the right-handed slugger, as he’ll take on LHP Drew Rom and the bad Cardinals bullpen. Look for him to showcase the power that has helped him record a .505 xSLG, which is in the 90th percentile.
Rom is an especially exploitable pitcher for Mountcastle. The 23-year-old Rom has only 17.1 major-league innings pitched, through which he has surrendered four actual and 3.8 expected home runs. RHBs accounted for two of those home runs and are slashing .355/.423/.548 against Rom. His struggles against opposite-handed batters extend to his time in the minors — RHBs have seven total home runs against him and are slashing .299/.384/.421. Rom’s poor performance against RHBs makes Mountcastle a great target — he has 12 home runs against LHPs and is slashing .340/.392/.660 against them.
You’ll find Mountcastle’s home run odds at different prices across the market. He clocks in at only +475 (17.4%) on DraftKings but is +560 (15.2%) on FanDuel. That price likely reflects the fact Mountcastle sat last night and FanDuel will charge you if he comes off the bench and pinch hits, but I don’t think the Orioles will sit Mountcastle again just because of his recent struggles, especially not with a LHP on the mound. With such a wide split in the odds between DraftKings and FanDuel, jump on the number at the latter book before it disappears. Also, get some action on Mountcastle to record multiple bases at odds of -120 (54.5%) via DraftKings, which you can boost up to +120 (45.5%) for the first $25.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ryan Mountcastle +560 at FanDuel
Yankees-Red Sox Home Run Pick
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
OddsShopper’s Target: Aaron Judge at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox game. Superstar slugger Aaron Judge is the model’s target at odds of +290 (25.6%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Although this year hasn’t gone as planned for the Bronx Bombers, Judge has been elite at the plate this year, mashing 31 actual and 31 expected home runs. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Yankees will take on RHP Tanner Houck at Fenway Park today. Houck has lined up against Judge seven times in his career, and he has three base hits through that span. Houck has fared well against same-handed batters like Judge, allowing them to hit only one home run and slash .222/.292/.275, but Judge fares well when taking on same-handed batters, mashing 24 home runs and slashing .254/.393/.573 against them.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +230 (30.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +279 (26.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +290 (25.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Aaron Judge +290 at FanDuel
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