Let’s go! I ran this home run column from Wednesday through Saturday last week, and we hit twice: we got a +420 ticket on Corey Seager and a +480 ticket on MJ Melendez to secure a profitable week. A new week means another chance to turn another profit. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today, one of which revolves around fading Kansas City’s starting pitcher, Jordan Lyles. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Fade Jordan Lyles Today
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals | 6:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Pick: Zach McKinstry at FanDuel
The Kansas City Royals will start RHP Jordan Lyles (0-11) on Monday. As his record suggests, the 2023 season has been disastrous for the 32-year-old veteran. Lyles owns a 6.89 ERA and a 5.04 xERA. He has given up a whopping 18 home runs and 41 extra-base hits across 14 starts and 79.2 innings pitched.
Few batters stand to benefit more from the matchup than second baseman Zach McKinstry. McKinstry bats from the left, which always helps when you’re lined up against a right-handed pitcher. Lyles has allowed 10 home runs and 18 extra-base hits to left-handed batters this year.
McKinstry isn’t the world’s best slugger, but he might be Detroit’s. Although he owns only five home runs and 13 extra-base hits this year, his OPS of .708 ranks among the team’s best, and his .357 expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, leads the roster.
Detroit’s Comerica Park isn’t friendly to left-handed power. The stadium ranks last in home run park factors for left-handed batters over the last three years. However, it also ranks first — and by a wide margin — for triples. McKinstry has three home runs and eight extra-base hits at home this year already.
We can buy McKinstry to hit a home run at odds of +560 (15.2%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is a fair price, and I recommend supplementing it by taking McKinstry to record two-plus bases at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Lyles is a fantastic pitcher to fade, especially tonight.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Zack McKinstry +560 at FanDuel
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Triston Casas at FanDuel
With my pick in the books, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s: the model wants exposure to none other than Boston’s Triston Casas. Note that four other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Boston Red Sox just had to play a doubleheader on Sunday. They bested the New York Yankees in both games but now must travel to Minnesota for a game late this evening. Fortunately, manager Alex Cora staggered his personnel to avoid fatigue — Casas only started one of the two games.
Casas and the Red Sox will face RHP Pablo Lopez (3-3) to start. Lopez owns a 4.27 ERA and an impressive 3.18 xERA. However, he has surrendered 11 home runs in 14 starts this year, so don’t get too hung up on his ERA. Casas has seven home runs to his name already as well.
On-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. Our model thinks a fair price is +500 (16.7%), so we’re getting a slight edge by playing this at +520 (16.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Triston Casas +520 at FanDuel
