Yesterday was absolutely brutal. We correctly identified a pitcher to fade, RHP Lance Lynn, only for our chosen batter (Matt Olson) to go 0-for, while every batter ahead of him in the order went yard. Blegh. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Braves-Dodgers (again) and Yankees-Astros. We’re trusting Kyle Tucker to show out against the hopeless Bronx Bombers.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, September 1
Yankees-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Isaiah’s Target: Kyle Tucker at FanDuel
I really wanted to feature tonight’s Blue Jays-Rockies game in this space for obvious reasons, but it’s not the best value — I’m going to tout Kyle Tucker to go yard at +390 (20.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook instead. There is just too much value on that line and the line for his total bases, where the over 1.5 is priced at +130 (43.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook, which is boostable to +190 (34.5%) for the first $25. Fading LHP Carlos Rodon against same-handed batters should prove sharp tonight, and I also recommend getting some exposure to Yordan Alvarez.
After signing a massive contract with New York, Rodon has looked like a shell of his former self. Although it’s a limited sample of just 644 pitches, Rodon owns an xSLG allowed of .452 to go with 10 actual and 9.4 expected home runs. Rodon, traditionally better against LHBs than RHBs, has allowed same-handed batters to record three home runs and a .560 SLG. His 5.97 ERA is a bit worse than his 5.40 xERA, but he owns an embarrassing 7.71 ERA on the road across three starts, coughing up four home runs in the process.
Kyle Tucker is well-positioned to exploit Rodon. He ranks third on the Astros in xSLG at .538 and owns a team-best 26 actual and 26 expected home runs. That xSLG slots firmly in the 94th percentile. His .299 xBA is in the 97th. Rodon and the Yankees are reeling, and New York doesn’t have much incentive to pull him if he gets off to a bad start. The Yankees are 18.5 points behind the AL East lead and are tapping out of this season. Look for Tucker and the Astros to smell blood in the water and capitalize.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Kyle Tucker +390 at FanDuel
Braves-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
OddsShopper’s Target: Marcell Ozuna at FanDuel
Let’s turn now to one of OddsShopper’s picks, which comes on the slate’s most interesting game: Braves-Dodgers. The model thinks there is plenty of value on Marcell Ozuna at odds of +420 (19.2%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Ozuna has hit 31 actual and 28.3 expected home runs this year, 12 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Ozuna will take on LHP Julio Urias this evening, who isn’t as threatening as some may believe. Urias has coughed up 15 home runs to RHBs like Ozuna for a .461 SLG allowed. His .425 xSLG allowed and 3.96 xERA are at about the MLB average. Still, Urias has coughed up 21 actual and 21.2 expected home runs this season, 21 of which would’ve counted as home runs at his home ballpark. With Ozuna owning 11 home runs against LHPs and a .670 SLG, look for him to do some damage tonight after an unremarkable showing in last night’s narrow win.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +320 (23.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +382 (20.8%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +420 (19.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Marcell Ozuna +420 at FanDuel
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