As teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays secure playoff spots, the MLB rolls on with another exciting slate of meaningful baseball. I want action on one member of the Reds, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the Orioles. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Twins-Reds and Orioles-Astros. We’re trusting Christian Encarnacion-Strand at home tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, September 18
Twins-Reds Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Isaiah’s Target: Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DraftKings
A couple of batters stand out from tonight’s Twins-Reds game, which will be played in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with 6.9 mph winds blowing out through right-center field. The Twins will start RHP Joe Ryan, who has coughed up a team-worst 28 actual and 29.3 expected home runs, a whopping 36 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Great American. The Reds will start recent call-up RHP Connor Phillips, who has coughed up three actual and 1.9 expected home runs in just 8.2 innings pitched, three of which would’ve gone yard at Great American.
The batter I’m ultimately backing in this matchup is RHH Christian Encarnacion-Strand for the Reds. Encarnacion-Strand, another recent Cincinnati call-up, owns a .474 xSLG with eight actual and 6.9 expected home runs to his name. He has now homered in back-to-back contests heading into tonight’s opening matchup with the Twins. All eight of Encarnacion-Strand’s home runs have come with him lined up against RHPs like Ryan. He is slashing a monstrous .284/.338/.500 against them this year through 134 at-bats. Over the last 15 days, Encarnacion-Strand has slashed .365/.400/.667.
Ryan has been a pumpkin at points this year, and his 36 expected home runs at Great American make him a fantastic target on the betting markets tonight. The 27-year-old pitcher has yet to take the mound at this park and may struggle in his first trip here. His 3.44 xERA is solid, but the fastball-dependent pitcher isn’t well-suited for a park like this one. It’s all the more concerning that his ERA jumps to 4.67 on the road, where he has coughed up 16 home runs, and that RHHs are slashing .258/.284/.503 against him with 20 home runs.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Encarnacion-Strand +450 at DraftKings
Astros-Orioles Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
OddsShopper’s Target: Anthony Santander at FanDuel
Let’s turn now to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s Astros-Orioles game. The model wants a ticket on SH Anthony Santander at the price of +350 (22.2%), a line you’ll only find at FanDuel. The 28-year-old outfielder has hit a team-high 27 actual and 30.7 expected home runs this season. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Santander will take on veteran RHP Justin Verlander tonight. Although Verlander is a savvy pitcher — any three-time Cy Young winner is — he has struggled with the long ball of late. Verlander has coughed up 18 home runs this season, seven of which have been hit in his last five starts. Verlander has allowed 17.5 expected home runs on the year, but 20 of those hits would’ve cleared the fences in Houston, a less pitcher-friendly park than New York’s Citi Field.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +275 (26.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +334 (23%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +350 (22.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Anthony Santander +350 at FanDuel
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