After cashing a +450 ticket on Christopher Morel on Monday, we had a weird Wednesday — Aaron Judge’s game got rained out, and Ryan Mountcastle suffered an injury early and was subbed out by the third inning. Anyway, I want action on one member of the Giants today, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the Orioles, so let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Giants-Rockies and Rays-Orioles. We’re trusting Mike Yastrzemski at Coors Field today.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, September 14
Giants-Rockies Home Run Pick
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Yastrzemski at DraftKings
Sometimes you can’t overthink it. The San Francisco Giants and LHB Mike Yastrzemski are in Coors Field today, and the Colorado Rockies will trot out RHP Chase Anderson. This will mark Yaz’s 28th star at Coors Field, and across 126 plate appearances and 109 at-bats here, the slugger has 10 home runs and is slashing .312/.397/.679. He is yet to clear the fences — or record a hit, for that matter — in Coors Field this year despite starting twice and making nine trips to the plate. That should change tonight if the Giants and Rockies can get this game in, which appears uncertain.
Yaz draws a great matchup against Anderson. The 35-year-old RHP has not been good this year — he owns a 5.46 xERA (10th percentile) and a .472 xSLG. he has coughed up 17 actual and 14.6 expected home runs across 68 innings pitched. Eight of those home runs have come in his home park. Yaz hasn’t just been fantastic at Coors Field, he has been effective against Anderson and other RHPs. He has 11 home runs and is slashing .273/.367/.528 against RHPs this year alone. He is also slashing .429/,429/.714 against Anderson through nine plate appearances.
Even if this game isn’t played on Thursday, Yaz will be a fantastic target in whichever game Anderson ends up starting. He owns a .445 xSLG, which is in the 67th percentile, to go with an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, the highest of his career, which is in the 72nd. It’s a relatively tiny MLB slate tonight as football typically dominates the airwaves on Thursday, so we don’t have a ton of fades on the mound (except for RHP Jose Urena). Consider pairing this with a wager on Yaz to record multiple bases at odds of +100 (50%) via DraftKings, which you can boost up to +150 (40%) for the first $25.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mike Yastrzemski +370 at DraftKings
Rays-Orioles Home Run Pick
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
OddsShopper’s Target: Adley Rutschman at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Rays-Orioles game. The model wants action on SH Adley Rutschman at odds of +750 (15.4%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Rutschman has been one of Baltimore’s best bats this year, mashing 18 actual and 18.1 expected home runs on the year, all 18 of which would’ve cleared the fences at his home park. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Rays will start RHP Aaron Civale tonight, who has been effective for them but is overperforming. His 2.96 ERA is much better than his 3.62 xERA, and his .336 SLG is much better than his .369 xSLG. Civale has coughed up only eight actual and 6.9 expected home runs this season, half of which have gone to LHBs, who are slashing .233/.288/.367 against him. Rutschman has yet to face Civale, but it’s worth noting that 13 of his home runs have come against RHPs. He is also slashing .262/.353/.408 against them.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +695 (12.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +750 (11.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Adley Rutschman +750 at FanDuel
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