Process over results. We may not have hit Bo Bichette at 11-1 (8.3%) yesterday, but Caesars moved the line all the way up to 17-2 (10.5%) before the game began; FanDuel even opened Bichette in the 6-1 (14.3%) range. Unfortunately, even +EV home run picks don’t always cash. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re getting exposure to at least one batter in Coors Field. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Keep Targeting Coors Field Today
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Wander Franco at Caesars
I’ve already got action on two player props for this game, but I just can’t stay away from this Wander Franco home run line. Let me go through my singular concern with this pick before diving into what I like about it: Arizona’s Chase Field ranks fourth-worst for home runs to left-handed batters. Fortunately, it ranks second for doubles and third for triples, so Franco’s base props have value. Franco is also a switch-hitter and may bat from the right side later in the game.
There are many things to like about targeting Franco in this spot. First, he’ll take on a bad pitcher. Minor leaguer RHP Brandon Pfaadt (0-2) has gotten the call again for Arizona. He has allowed 18 home runs in the minors and eight home runs in the majors this year. Second, seven of Franco’s nine home runs and 25 of his 31 extra-base hits this season have come against RHPs like Pfaadt. Yet despite those factors, we can buy Franco at the low price of 8-1 (11.1%) via Caesars Sportsbook to hit a home run. Sign me up.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Wander Franco +800 at Caesars
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox | 4:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Moustakas at FanDuel
I try to avoid the early games, but with LHP Lance Lynn (4-8) on the mound for Chicago, we can’t pass up the Angels today. Lynn has surrendered 19 home runs and 17 expected home runs on the year. Three batters on the Angels roster have three-career home runs against Lynn: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Mike Moustakas. Lynn’s primary weakness this season has been left-handed batting, as lefties have racked up 14 of those 19 home runs. With Angel Stadium ranked third-best in park factors for home runs to lefties, we’re getting exposure to Moustakas.
Mike Moustakas just joined the Angels this week after getting dealt from the Colorado Rockies. Since then, the 34-year-old slugger has racked up three singles and nothing more. However, Moustakas owns four home runs and 11 extra-base hits this year. While the Rockies didn’t often feature him against LHPs, he owns seven hits, two extra-base hits and a home run against them in just 24 at-bats. There is a chance that the Angels choose to use Moustakas as a reserve today, so although FanDuel has the best price, consider waiting to lock in this play.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mike Moustakas +500 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Max Muncy at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the late slate: the model wants exposure to the recently returned Max Muncy, who takes on the Colorado Rockies tonight at Coors Field. Note that nine other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Both the matchup and stadium make this an attractive play. Coors Field ranks as the best MLB stadium for home runs. The Rockies will start RHP Chase Anderson (0-2), who has allowed 11 home runs and 8.9 expected home runs so far this season. Left-handed batters like Muncy have accounted for six of Anderson’s 11 home runs allowed in 15 fewer plate appearances.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +260 (27.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +293 (25.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +320 (23.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Muncy +320 at FanDuel
