Let’s go — yesterday’s column cashed on a +540 ticket on Shea Langeliers! We’ve got two more picks for today’s action, both on the late games, one of which features an L.A. superstar. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: L.A. Superstar Goes Yard
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Oakland Athletics again tonight. Last night’s contest was an ugly beatdown — the Dodgers were up by seven runs before the end of the second inning. Oakland’s starter, LHP Hogan Harris, coughed up nine hits and eight earned runs before exiting in the third. It’s safe to expect more of the same tonight with LHP J.P. Sears on the mound — Sears has allowed the second-most actual (25) and expected (27.8) home runs in the majors. His 4.09 ERA and 4.59 xERA also make him a worthy fade.
We’re targeting LHB Freddie Freeman from L.A. because of his dominance against same-handed pitchers. Freeman has 44 hits, 22 extra-base hits and 11 home runs against LHPs this season, good for an elite 1.080 OPS. Despite ranking fourth on the Dodgers in actual (21) and expected (20.2) home runs, he leads the team in both weighted on-base average, or WOBA, at .421, and expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .421. He also owns an elite .328 xBA. Freeman gets a boost from steady 10 mph winds blowing out through right field, which, as a LHB, he naturally favors.
Some books are offering a better deal on this than others. It can be tough to evaluate Sears against LHBs because he has only 80 at-bats against them this year, but five (6.3%) produced home runs. With every other book listing this at +370 (21.3%) or shorter, let’s lock in the +390 (20.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to add the over for Freeman’s total bases, which you can buy at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings. Freeman may not have a home run in his last five games, but he recorded at least two bases in four of those appearances.
New to DraftKings? Take advantage of their signup offer: new users can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +390 at FanDuel
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels | 9:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: J.P. Crawford at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the slate’s penultimate contest. The model believes that Seattle’s shortstop, LHB J.P. Crawford, has gotten severely mispriced at +1300 (7.1%). Crawford ranks seventh on the Mariners in actual (9) and eighth in expected (7.8) home runs. Note that six other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
While Crawford may not be the world’s most powerful hitter, this game sets up well for him. He’ll take on RHP Shohei Ohtani, who, while doubtlessly elite, has struggled with the long ball. Ohtani has allowed 18 actual and 17.9 expected home runs this season. LHBs like Crawford have accounted for 11 home runs against Ohtani. All nine of Crawford’s home runs have come against RHPs as well. He has even gone yard against Ohtani before. In a hitter-friendly Angel Stadium with the wind blowing out, Crawford is a juicy target at this price.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +750 (11.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +1052 (8.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +1300 (7.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.P. Crawford +1300 at FanDuel
