Whew! After an exciting weekend of baseball action, we’re slowing down a bit on Monday, a travel day. Still, we’ve got plenty of games to choose from in the evening, including a Blue Jays-Dodgers tilt that stands out as a source of value. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: L.A. Superstar Has Value Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at FanDuel
My favorite home run pick for today’s slate comes in the nightcap. The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight at Dodger Stadium, and the forecast calls for wind blowing straight out of center field. That will make life difficult for Toronto’s starter, RHP Jose Berrios. Although Berrios has been solid this year, his 3.39 ERA is not sustainable relative to his 4.59 xERA. Likewise, his actual home runs allowed (13) are far fewer than his expected home runs allowed (15.6).
Freddie Freeman is the sharpest Dodger to target this evening. He leads the team in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .422, which also ranks fifth in the MLB. He ranks fourth on the roster in actual home runs (20) and expected home runs (19). Although Freeman is better known for feasting against RHPs than lighting up LHPs, he owns 20 extra-base hits and 11 home runs against LHPs so far this season, good for a 1.060 OPS.
Further, Freeman has lined up against Berrios before. Across three at-bats, Freeman has one hit — a home run — and no strikeouts. I recommend that you split your action between Freeman to hit a home run at odds of +425 (19.1%) via DraftKings Sportsbook and to record two-plus bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) at DraftKings. You’ll find those wagers priced at +340 (22.7%) and -125 (55.6%) at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +425 at DraftKings
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals | 7:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: David Fry at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the earlier slate. It wants action on Cleveland’s 27-year-old catcher, David Fry, who just went yard in the ninth inning last night to tie the game. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Although Fry may not be a household name, that’s good for his home run odds — you’ll find them inefficiently priced as a result. Fry has three home runs in 66 at-bats this year, but two of those dingers have come since the All-Star Break. Fry will also benefit from taking on Kansas City LHP Ryan Yarbrough. Although Yarbrough has kept the long ball mostly in check this season, Fry performs better against LHPs than RHPs. He has three minor-league home runs against LHPs in 62 at-bats this year and two major-league home runs against LHPs in 29 at-bats.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +698 (12.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: David Fry +800 at FanDuel
