We hit a +390 ticket on Freddie Freeman last night, one day after hitting a +540 ticket on Shea Langeliers. That’s enough bragging from me — we’ve got two more picks for today’s action to talk about. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: N.Y. Superstar Mispriced Today
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Pete Alonso at DraftKings
The New York Mets sold all they could at the MLB trade deadline, but star slugger RHB Pete Alonso is still in town. He’ll take on the red-hot Orioles at Camden Yards tonight, but I’m targeting him regardless. Alonso has shown some serious power this season — he leads the Mets in both actual (31) and expected (27.5) home runs. He also leads the team in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .376. While the team’s decision to sell at the deadline may have affected some players’ motivation, Alonso already has two multi-hit games and one home run to his name since the calendar flipped to August.
Alonso draws a favorable matchup against RHP Dean Kremer. Kremer owns a bad 4.66 ERA and an even worse 5.49 xERA. His already-bad numbers are worse at home, where he owns a 5.51 ERA and has given up 14 home runs. Kremer ranks bottom-10 in both actual (23) and expected (24.3) home runs allowed. Although Kremer has fared better against RHBs than LHBs, he has still coughed up 20 extra-base hits and nine dingers to same-handed batters on the year. Alonso will also benefit from 9 mph winds blowing out through left center field.
We’re getting a fantastic, off-market number for this MLB home run pick today at DraftKings. FanDuel lists Alonso at only +340 (22.7%) to hit a home run. You’ll find him priced at +425 (19.1%) at BetMGM and +429 (18.9%) at Pinnacle, a sharp offshore book. Yet for whatever reason, we can buy the +450 (18.2%) via DraftKings. Supplement this home run pick with a wager on Alonso to record over 1.5 bases at +125 (44.4%) also via DraftKings. Take advantage of the value before it gets bid off the board.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Pete Alonso +450 at FanDuel
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays | 6:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Riley Greene at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on a rising star. The model believes that one of Detroit’s outfielders, LHB Riley Greene, is currently undervalued at odds of only +600 (14.3%). Greene has missed some of Detroit’s games this year but still ranks fourth on the roster in actual (9) and expected (10) home runs. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
It’s easy to overlook members of the Detroit Tigers, but the 22-year-old Greene has been too good to ignore. He leads the Tigers in xwOBA at .375, which ranks in the 92nd percentile. His average exit velocity ranks in the 86th percentile, slightly behind his max exit velocity, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. Greene takes on the Tampa Bay Rays and RHP Zack Littell tonight. Littell has given up four home runs in 29.2 innings of action, three of which went to LHB like Greene.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +425 (19.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +543 (15.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Riley Greene +600 at FanDuel
