Another Dinger Tuesday is the books, and we roll on to one of the final Wednesdays before football starts to actively compete with the Great American Pastime. We’ve still got months to go in the season, so let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: One Longshot, One Favorite
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians | 6:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Christian Encarnacion-Strand at FanDuel
The Cincinnati Reds have been flaunting their deep farm system this season. First we saw Elly De La Cruz called up, now it’s Christian Encarnacion-Strand making headlines. Encarnacion-Strand already has three home runs to his name across 26 games and 88 at-bats. All three of those home runs have come against RHPs like today’s starter for the Cleveland Guardians, RHP Noah Syndergaard. Although the small sample size we have on Encarnacion-Strand makes evaluating his numbers difficult, his 3.1 expected home runs and .427 xSLG are encouraging, as is his 45% hard-hit rate.
This is also a great spot to fade Syndergaard. The struggling veteran ranks at or near the top of the Guardians’ rotation in both actual (16) and expected (14.2) home runs allowed. Syndergaard made a start at today’s venue, Great American Ball Park, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but lasted only three innings after coughing up two home runs. Syndergaard owns an abysmal 6.35 ERA and a similarly bad 6.10 xERA, and his .538 SLG allowed and .512 xSLG allowed are also concerning. He is a bottom-five percentile pitcher in both xERA and xSLG this year.
Encarnacion-Strand is a great bat to target because the market doesn’t agree on where to price him. You’ll find him at +425 (19.1%) via DraftKings and +375 (21.1%) via BetMGM — so let’s lock in the off-market +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook instead. While we’ll have to eat this wager if Encarnacion-Strand comes off the bench, pinch hits and doesn’t record a home run, the banged-up Reds need his bat until Jake Fraley and Jonathan India are ready to return. Let’s mix this in with Encarnacion-Strand to record multiple bases at odds of +125 (44.4%) via BetMGM.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get $100 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Encarnacion-Strand +560 at FanDuel
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies | 3:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Ketel Marte at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of today’s earlier games: D-backs-Rockies. The model has faith in slugger Ketel Marte tonight and believes he is undervalued even at odds of +340 (22.7%). Marte has been one of Arizona’s best bats and owns 19 actual and 17.4 expected home runs on the year with a .432 xSLG Note that five other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Votto draws a matchup against LHP Austin Gomber, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this year. Gomber owns a bad 5.33 ERA and a worse 5.57 xERA. His .500 SLG allowed and .494 xSLG allowed are similarly concerning, and he slots in the seventh percentile in both expected metrics. Gomber must take the hill at Coors Field today, which leads the MLB in park factors for home runs. His ERA balloons to 6.82 here, and 14 of his 22 home runs allowed have come at his home park. Gomber’s 22 actual and 22.1 expected home runs allowed rank second highest on the Rockies.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. BetMGM lists this home run bet at odds of +250 (28.6%). Our model thinks a fair price is +330 (23.3%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +340 (22.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ketel Marte +340 at FanDuel
