After cashing a +255 ticket for Luis Robert Jr. on Saturday, I’m looking for some more winners this week — and hopefully, they’ll come with longer odds. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Red-Sox Astros and Giants-Phillies. While most books have an efficient price up for Rafael Devers, the red-hot slugger stands out as a value bet at one book in particular.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, August 21
Red Sox-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Isaiah’s Target: Rafael Devers at FanDuel
The Houston Astros will start RHP Cristian Javier tonight, which bodes poorly for them against a lineup full of left-handed power. Javier’s .430 SLG allowed jumps to .486 against LHBs, so a Red Sox lineup that features players like Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida could prove problematic. Javier’s standard stats are already concerning enough for me to fade him here: his 4.49 ERA and 4.63 xERA aren’t good, and neither is his .462 xSLG allowed. Javier is in the 30th percentile in the former expected metric and is 15th in the latter. He has also coughed up 19 actual and 23.1 expected home runs.
Rafael Devers is the best-positioned member of the Red Sox to go yard against Javier tonight. He leads Boston with 29 actual and 30.6 expected home runs to his name, 32 of which would’ve gone over the fence in Houston. Devers also leads Boston with his .388 xwOBA and .559 xSLG, both of which are in the 95th percentile or higher. Further, Devers will benefit from strong, 15 mph winds blowing out through left field, which could help him get some extra distance or keep a ball in fair territory. The 26-year-old slugger is on an incredible tear with 10 hits and three home runs over his last four games.
The odds are steep, but they should be steeper at FanDuel. You’ll find Devers priced at +240 (29.4%) at BetMGM and +245 (28.9%) at DraftKings, but you’ll find him at +320 (23.8%) at FanDuel. So which books are wrong? Most likely FanDuel. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Devers at odds of only +250 (28.6%). Let’s pair this with a wager on Devers to record multiple bases, which you’ll find at +105 (48.8%) on FanDuel but -110 (52.4%) or worse everywhere else.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Rafael Devers +320 at FanDuel
Giants-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Isaiah’s Target: Alec Bohm at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on one of today’s earlier games: Giants-Phillies. The model wants some exposure to Alec Bohm at odds of +750 (11.7%), a price you’ll find exclusively available via FanDuel. Bohm has played well this year and has 12 actual and 10.4 expected home runs to his name this season with a .437 xSLG. Note that seven other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Bohm and the Phillies will take on LHP Scott Alexander and the Giants. Alexander has often served as an opener for the Giants and is likely to give way to bulk reliever LHP Sean Manaea. Alexander has coughed up just one actual and 1.1 expected home runs this year, but Manaea is responsible for giving up eight actual and 9.9 expected home runs this year across 81 innings pitched. Although they’ve been somewhat stingy, Alexander and Manaea have also benefited from playing in a pitcher-friendly park, an advantage they won’t have tonight.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +675 (12.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +750 (11.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Alec Bohm +750 at FanDuel
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