The NFL season has arrived, but value remains on the MLB betting markets. Let’s turn to tonight’s slate, where I want action on one member of the Atlanta Braves, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a member of the Seattle Mariners. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Cardinals-Braves and Mariners-Rays. We’re trusting Michael Harris II at home against RHP Adam Wainwright.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, September 7
Cardinals-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Isaiah’s Target: Michael Harris II at FanDuel
Just about everyone other than Ronald Acuna Jr. made some noise for the Atlanta Braves last night, which was frustrating, but at least we know we picked a reasonable pitcher to fade. We’re fading the Cardinals again tonight with this pick. They’ll trot out RHP Adam Wainwright in what has to be the 42-year-old’s retirement tour. Wainwright owns a 7.66 xERA, .333 xBA and .569 xSLG, all of which are firmly in the first percentile. The veteran pitcher has coughed up 16 actual and 15.8 expected home runs this season, 17 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Truist Park.
We’re backing Michael Harris II in this spot for several reasons, but the splits and expected stats make the case best. Wainwright has allowed lefties to hit seven home runs in 163 at-bats while slashing .368/.439/.626. Harris has hit 10 home runs against RHPs while slashing .292/.338/.458. Although he trails most of his teammates with only 13 actual and 13.2 expected home runs, I still have faith in the 22-year-old lefty, especially at the price where he is trading. Harris may be lagging behind his teammates in key metrics, but his .292 xBA and .460 xSLG are still in the top quartile.
We’re getting Harris at too good of a price to pass up, and while he probably won’t get too many at-bats against Wainwright, the St. Louis bullpen is terrible anyway. You can find Harris at odds of +800 (11.1%) at FanDuel Sportsbook, but he slots in at only +600 (14.3%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s pair this with a wager on him to record multiple bases at odds of +115 (46.5%) at DraftKings — Harris is slashing .377/.389/.566 over the last 15 days with 20 hits and six extra-base hits.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Michael Harris II +800 at FanDuel
Mariners-Rays Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.
OddsShopper’s Target: Julio Rodriguez at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of today’s evening games: Mariners-Rays. The model wants exposure to second-year RHB Julio Rodriguez at odds of +430 (18.8%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Rodriguez is one of the most exciting young bats in the MLB and has hit 27 actual and 26.4 expected home runs on the year. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Rodriguez and the Mariners have a date with the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field tonight. Tampa will trot out RHP Zack Littell, whose 4.76 xERA and .287 xBA are both in or around the bottom quartile. Littell has coughed up 11 actual and 10.6 expected home runs this year across 21 games and 60.1 innings pitched. Of those 11 home runs, RHBs accounted for seven, and they are slashing .312/.326/.514 against him on the year. Further, despite the Trop’s reputation as a pitcher’s park, Littell has allowed eight home runs there this year.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +330 (23.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +414 (19.5%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +430 (18.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Julio Rodriguez +430 at FanDuel
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