The MLB rolls on with a loaded Wednesday slate that sees games getting underway from 1 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET. I’ve got my eyes on two of the late-slate games, and we’re getting exposure to one storied veteran and one freshly called-up prospect. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Diamondbacks-Dodgers and Braves-Rockies. We’re trusting Freddie Freeman after he went hitless on Tuesday.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, August 30
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
Let’s open the card by targeting veteran Freddie Freeman to go yard tonight. It’s not the perfect spot for him, as he tends to fare better against LHPs than RHPs, but it’s a solid enough spot. He’ll take on a struggling RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has coughed up 15 actual and 14.1 expected home runs across 13 starts and 67 innings pitched. LHBs like Freeman have accounted for eight of those home runs and own a .538 SLG against Pfaadt. Freeman himself has a single and a double across three at-bats against the rookie pitcher.
The primary reason we’re targeting Freeman is his incredible resume. His .571 xSLG and .321 xBA are in the 98th and 99th percentile, respectively. He has mashed 24 actual and 23.3 expected home runs, which could be better, but 29 of those hits would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. Although he has been better against LHPs, he still owns a .536 SLG with 12 home runs against RHPs. He went hitless in last night’s Diamondbacks-Dodgers game but had just gone yard in the opening game of the series.
Because some sharp books haven’t opened the prop markets for this game yet, you’ll find some major variance in Freeman’s home run odds. He comes in at only +320 (23.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook to go yard, which is much shorter than the +400 (20%) at DraftKings. Pair a wager on Freeman to hit a home run with one on him to record multiple bases at odds of -115 (53.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pfaadt won’t get out of this one without surrendering at least an extra-base hit to the superstar LHB.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +400 at DraftKings
Braves-Rockies Home Run Pick
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver
OddsShopper’s Target: Hunter Goodman at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on another one of today’s late games: Braves-Rockies. The model thinks there is value on Hunter Goodman at odds of +440 (18.5%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Goodman has yet to hit a home run since getting called up three games ago, but he mashed a triple that would’ve gone yard at a few parks last night. Note that nine other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Goodman takes on an unproven young talent in RHP Darius Vines, who will make his first-ever major league start on Wednesday. Vines has missed some chunks of action this year and has given up five home runs across five starts in AAA. Counting the production he gave up at in lower divisions, Vines has coughed up three home runs to RHBs like Goodman. Meanwhile, Goodman has mashed 24 home runs against RHPs in the minors with a .526 SLG.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or minor-league production — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +320 (23.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +406 (19.8%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +440 (18.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Hunter Goodman +440 at FanDuel
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
