We may not have hit a home run prop yesterday, but the postponement of the Blue Jays-White Sox game and our +105 ticket on Freddie Freeman’s total bases means that it was a breakeven night for us. With a full slate on tap tonight, I’m excited about our odds of getting one back in the winner’s column. Let’s dive into today’s home run picks, including Bryan Reynolds, who we simply must bet on in this spot. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Pittsburgh’s Batters Have Value Today
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Colton Cowser at FanDuel
Let’s open with OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in on one of the slate’s earlier games. The model wants action on Baltimore’s Colton Cowser, a prospect who just got promoted in advance of Wednesday’s game. He went 1-for-3 at the plate with a walk and an RBI in his debut, and now OddsShopper is trusting him to go yard in his second appearance. Note that 23 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
This pick, while bold, makes plenty of sense. Cowser will take on the New York Yankees and struggling RHP Luis Severino. Severino has allowed 10 home runs and 10.9 expected home runs across eight starts and 40 innings pitched since his return from injury. Cowser has 10 home runs in AAA so far this year, eight of which have come against RHPs like Severino. He has an impressive 1.016 OPS against RHPs in AAA as well. Of his 21 extra-base hits in AAA, 18 came against RHPs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +500 (16.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +674 (12.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Colton Cowser +800 at FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Bryan Reynolds at DraftKings
Let’s flip the script and take a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates today after getting exposure to Freddie Freeman yesterday. Bryan Reynolds ended his multi-game streak without an extra-base hit last night, and I want action on him to run things back tonight against LHP Julio Urias. Urias has struggled this year and owns a 4.94 ERA and 4.40 xERA with 14 home runs and 13.8 expected home runs. Urias has allowed 10 home runs and 19 extra-base hits to RHBs this year.
Reynolds, a switch-hitter, benefits from the matchup against Urias — and from the ballpark. He has nine home runs and 10.5 expected home runs to his name in 2023. Although Reynolds has recorded only one home run and seven extra-base hits against LHPs this year, is hitting .357 with a home run across 14 at-bats against Urias for his career. Dodger Stadium also ranks second in park factors for home runs to LHBs over the last three years.
Let’s get exposure to Reynolds at the current market prices. We can get him to hit a home run at +500 (16.7%) via DraftKings and to record over 1.5 total bases at +125 (44.4%) via DraftKings. We’re beating the market with the total bases prop, as you’ll find the over 1.5 trading at +122 (45.1%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Getting exposure to both markets in case he hits a ball that just barely stays in the park is a sharp MLB home run betting strategy. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Bryan Reynolds +500 at DraftKings
