We’re off to a solid start this week. Monday’s column cashed a +520 ticket on Triston Casas, so I’m looking to keep that momentum rolling. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’ll target one member of the Boston Red Sox who seems to be on the up-and-up. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Adam Duvall is So Back
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Pick: Adam Duvall at DraftKings
The Red Sox had a scoring party last night. The team tallied 10 runs with three dingers — Masataka Yoshida, Adam Duvall and Christian Arroyo all went yard. The Red Sox will now take on RHP Sonny Gray (4-1), whose 2.37 ERA looks solid but isn’t supported by his 3.70 xERA. Gray has given up only a single home run this year but has allowed 3.6 xHR. The wheels have started to come off for Gray after an elite start to the campaign, and that trend should continue tonight.
We’re targeting Adam Duvall here, which feels a bit like chasing his home run from last night, but we’re still getting this at a reasonable price at odds of +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Duvall is starting to find his power again after returning from injury. He is no stranger to Gray, either — he owns three hits, one double, one home run and a walk against him with an OPS of 1.500.
Duvall may only have five home runs this season, but he missed all of May with an injury, and he owns a solid 7.6 expected home runs. The big hits are coming eventually, so let’s back him to correct course and do some damage against a regressing pitcher. Consider getting action on him to record over 1.5 bases at odds of +140 (41.7%) as well. If you’re yet to sign up at DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Adam Duvall +500 at FanDuel
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Ryan Noda at FanDuel
With my pick in the books, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s: the model wants exposure to one member of the Oakland Athletics: Ryan Noda. Note that seven other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Although the Athletics have struggled this year, they’ll get a shot at an unproven RHP Gavin Williams, who is making his first-career professional appearance. Williams has a solid 2.39 ERA across 60.1 innings pitched in the minors this year — but he has also allowed six home runs, including two in his most recent appearance. Ryan Noda, a left-handed batter, has six home runs against RHPs this year with a .819 OPS.
On-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. Our model thinks a fair price is +537 (15.7%), so we’re getting a lot of edge by playing this at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ryan Noda +600 at FanDuel
