Nobody went yard for us yesterday, but I’m encouraged that the pitcher we targeted — RHP Noah Syndergaard — coughed up a boatload of extra-base hits and two home runs. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks
New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:15 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Francisco Lindor at FanDuel
The St. Louis Cardinals are content to keep starting RHP Adam Wainwright on his farewell tour, but that decision will likely cost them some runs — and, potentially, some home runs. To put it nicely, Wainwright has struggled this year. He owns an 8.78 ERA and 7.79 xERA to go with a .618 SLG allowed and .577 xSLG allowed. He ranks in the first percentile for those two expected metrics. Wainwright has also coughed up 14 actual and 12.6 expected home runs.
Francisco Lindor is well-positioned to take advantage of Wainwright’s struggles. The switch-hitting shortstop fares well against RHPs, with 13 home runs and a .450 SLG recorded against them over 313 at-bats. Wainwright struggles against LHBs as well — he has coughed up 23 extra-base hits and seven home runs to them, good for a .705 SLG allowed. Lindor has recorded only two hits and no home runs in nine career at-bats against Wainwright, but the veteran pitcher has taken a major step back this season.
We’re getting a great deal on this home run pick at FanDuel. Lindor slots in at odds of +340 (22.7%) at BetMGM and +360 (21.7%) at DraftKings, but you’ll find him at +450 (18.2%) at FanDuel. We can tell this line is mispriced because Pinnacle, a sharp book, also lists Lindor at +357 (21.9%). Lindor isn’t the world’s best slugger, but his .467 xSLG and 21.5 expected home runs deserve more respect. Pair this with a wager on Lindor to record multiple bases at odds of -120 (54.6%) at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Francisco Lindor +450 at FanDuel
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians | 7:15 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Spencer Torkelson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on one of today’s later games: Tigers-Guardians. The model wants action on Spencer Torkelson and believes that his odds are too long even at +235 (29.9%). Torkelson has been one of Detroit’s best bats, especially of late, and owns 21 actual and 23.4 expected home runs on the year with a .432 xSLG. He has hit six home runs over the last two weeks as well. Note that five other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Torkelson will take on RHP Xzavion Curry and the Cleveland Guardians. Curry owns a 3.39 ERA but only a 5.15 xERA and has struggled in limited action as a starter. His .407 SLG allowed isn’t bad, but his .483 xSLG allowed is in the ninth percentile. He has taken on Torkelson for two at-bats so far, allowing him to only record one single, but that’s not a particularly meaningful sample. Curry has also coughed up seven home runs and a .503 SLG to RHBs like Torkelson.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. BetMGM lists this home run bet at odds of +170 (37%). Our model thinks a fair price is +230 (30.3%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +235 (29.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Spencer Torkelson +235 at FanDuel
