We keep missing on home run bets but hitting on total base props. Those are enough to secure profitable returns, but I want some dingers, especially now that we’re into the weekend. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s home run picks, including Christian Yelich who we simply must bet on in this spot. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Superstar Delivers in Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds | 4:10 p.m. ET on FS1
Isaiah’s Targets: Christian Yelich at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s model and I are in agreement with this home run pick: FanDuel has goofed by setting the line at a number this long. Yelich slots in at +380 (20.8%) or shorter across the market, but we can bet on him at +500 (16.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook to hit a home run today. We’re getting more than enough value to warrant a wager for market-based reasons, but there are some additional factors to note here as well.
Yelich has six career at-bats against RHP Luke Weaver. They have gone poorly for the Cincinnati starter. Yelich has recorded two hits, both of which were home runs, and two strikeouts against him. Weaver has struggled this year and has given up 15 home runs on only 11.5 expected home runs. His miserable 6.72 ERA slots in well above his 5.36 xERA, but neither number inspires confidence.
Weaver’s struggles don’t stem just from playing at a hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Of his 15 home runs allowed, six have come on the road. Yelich, a LHB, is in the perfect spot to capitalize against Weaver, a RHP. Yelich has recorded 27 extra-base hits and nine home runs against RHPs this year. Let’s get action on him to hit a home run and record over 1.5 bases.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Yelich +500 at FanDuel
Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers | 4:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Stone Garrett at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in on another one of the slate’s afternoon games. The model wants action on Washington’s Stone Garrett. Note that 20 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Garrett, a 27-year-old outfielder, is easily overlooked on today’s slate. He’ll take on the Texas Rangers and LHP Andrew Heaney. Heaney has been good this year, but he has given up 29 extra-base hits and 14 home runs to RHBs like Garrett. Further, Garrett has often capitalized against LHPs, as all five of his home runs have come against them. He owns an OPS of .863 against LHPs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +340 (22.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +386 (20.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +420 (19.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Stone Garrett +420 at FanDuel
