After a solid Thursday that saw us cash our total bases prop but not our home run pick, I’m looking for somebody to actually go yard today. We’ve got plenty of games to choose from, but the slate’s best target — Athletics-Rockies — will require us to wait for official pitching announcements. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Big-Name Stars Today
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Bo Bichette at DraftKings
The Los Angeles Angels took Shohei Ohtani off the market and spent up to acquire RHP Lucas Giolito before the trade deadline. The former Chicago White Sox star will make his debut start tonight, but Angels fans shouldn’t get their hopes up too much: Giolito has surrendered 20 actual and 19.5 expected home runs this year. Most of that production has come on the road, which is exactly where he’ll start tonight.
Bo Bichette stands out as a value bet against Giolito. Bichette has 11 career at-bats against him with four hits, two extra-base hits and a home run, good for an impressive 1.144 OPS. Bichette also ranks second on the Blue Jays in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .372. He is tied for first in actual (17) but ranks third in expected home runs (16) as well. Importantly, he has 18 expected home runs at Rogers Centre, which ranks tied for 13th in park factors for home runs.
The market isn’t in agreement on where to peg Bichette’s odds, which creates an opportunity for us. You’ll find Bichette priced at +500 (16.7%) at FanDuel and +675 (12.9%) at BetMGM to hit a home run, but that number sits all the way up at +750 (11.8%) at DraftKings. I expect the market to settle somewhere in the middle of that number, so let’s buy the +750 before it disappears. Pair it with Bichette to record over 1.5 total bases at odds of -120 (54.6%) via DraftKings.
New to DraftKings? Take advantage of their signup offer: new users can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Bo Bichette +750 at DraftKings
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 7:20 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Matt Olson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of the MLB’s home run leaders: Atlanta’s Matt Olson. Olson has a monster 32 actual and 30.1 expected home runs to his name already. Note that 11 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
You’ll find Olson at a pricey +280 (%) at FanDuel, but that is still friendly enough for us to find some value. Olson takes on RHP Adrian Houser, who has coughed up seven actual and 6.1 expected home runs in 11 starts and 13 appearances this season. Five of those dingers went to LHBs like Olson. Hauser also takes the mound at Truist Park today, which ranks sixth in park factors for home runs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +220 (31.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +256 (28.1%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +280 (26.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson +280 at FanDuel
