The NFL and college football have returned in force, but the MLB is still in action for quite some time, and value remains on the baseball betting markets. It’s time to discuss Monday’s slate, and I want action on one member of the Chicago Cubs, while OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the Milwaukee Brewers. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Cubs-Rockies and Marlins-Brewers. We’re trusting Christopher Morel on the road in Coors Field.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, September 11
Cubs-Rockies Home Run Pick
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver
Isaiah’s Target: Christopher Morel at DraftKings
It’s not every day that the books leave value on a home run market for a game played at Coors Field, but that’s just what DraftKings has done with Christopher Morel today. Morel owns odds of only +450 (18.2%) to go yard at that book despite others listing it at far shorter odds, including FanDuel, where you’ll find Morel at +330 (23.3%) to go yard. Morel has mashed 21 actual and 20.2 expected home runs, 21 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Coors Field. His .481 xSLG ranks slots in the 82nd percentile, while his 50.5% hard-hit rate is in the 92nd.
Morel will take on the Rockies and LHP Kyle Freeland today. The matchup bodes well for him — Freeland has struggled against both the long ball and opposite-handed batters this year. He has coughed up a monstrous 28 actual and 25.8 expected home runs on the year, and of the 28 balls that actually cleared the fences, 25 were hit by RHBs. Righties are slashing .312/.357/.554 against Freeland. Meanwhile, Morel has nine extra-base hits and five home runs in 75 at-bats against LHPs. He is slashing .227/.301/.493 against them.
Let’s get some action on Morel to both hit a home run and record multiple bases. You’ll find his home run odds listed at +450 (18.2%) via DraftKings and his odds of recording multiple bases at +120 (45.5%) — you’ll find the same total bases prop priced at -160 (61.5%) via FanDuel. The splits and expected stats all point to value on Morel today, so make sure to buy the number at DraftKings before it gets bid off the board.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christopher Morel +450 at DraftKings
Marlins-Brewers Home Run Pick
When: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
OddsShopper’s Target: William Contreras at FanDuel
Now, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Marlins-Brewers game. The model wants exposure to William Contreras at odds of +600 (14.3%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Conteras has been solid at the plate this year, mashing 15 actual and 15.6 expected home runs. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Brewers remain in control of the NL Central, but the Chicago Cubs are breathing down their necks, making this game against the Wild Card-hunting Miami Marlins that much more meaningful. The Marlins will start LHP Jesus Luzardo, who has coughed up 21 actual and 24 expected home runs this season. Luzardo also owns a .392 xERA and .410 xSLG. He has also struggled against RHBs like Contreras, giving up 18 home runs and a .439 SLG to them.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +450 (18.2%). Our model thinks a fair price is +559 (15.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: William Contreras +600 at FanDuel
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