After a profitable week, I’m back with more home run picks. We cashed in big wins for Shea Langeliers and Freddie Freeman, along with several total bases bets, so let’s roll that momentum forward into a much stabler most-deadline world. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Great American Today
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds | 6:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Josh Bell at DraftKings
The Miami Marlins were buyers at the trade deadline and added first baseman Josh Bell from the Cleveland Guardians. Bell is a switch hitter with power that adds some depth to a somewhat top-heavy offense. Although he isn’t the best bat, Bell ranks third on the Marlins in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .354 and fourth in expected home runs at 14.1. A whopping 21 of Bell’s hits would’ve gone for home runs in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, which is where he’ll take the diamond today. With 13 mph winds forecasted to blow out through center field, Bell finds himself in a fantastic spot.
Bell draws a matchup against a not-very-good LHP Brandon Williams. Williams owns a 4.85 ERA and a 5.71 xERA. He has given up 12 actual and 12.1 expected home runs on the year, 14 of which would’ve counted for a home run at Great American. All 12 of those home runs have gone to opposite-handed batters, so Bell, a switch hitter, will benefit. RHBs have racked up a whopping 29 extra-base hits to go with those 12 home runs, good for a .829 OPS. Bell has fared well against LHPs this season and owns 3 extra-base hits and five home runs in only 117 at-bats. Williams has also coughed up eight home runs in Great American and just allowed two to the Cubs in his last appearance.
There’s a little bit of market weirdness here. While guys with more home runs like Jake Burger and Jorge Soler have far shorter odds than Bell. Burger clocks in at +250 (28.8%) while Soler sits at +190 (34.5%). But we’ll find Bell priced between +400 (20%) and +450 (18.2%) via DraftKings Sportsbook, so let’s take the best deal available. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this one priced all the way down at +406 (19.8%), so don’t expect this number to just sit around forever. I recommend that you split a unit between Bell to record a home run and to record over 1.5 bases for +100 (50%) via DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Josh Bell +450 at DraftKings
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Jake Bauers at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on a red-hot member of the New York Yankees. The model believes that Jake Bauers is currently undervalued at odds of only +450 (18.2%). Bauers was briefly sent down but still has 11 actual and 12 expected home runs, which ranks sixth and fifth on the roster, respectively. Note that five other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Bauers takes on RHP Dylan Cease. Although Cease was supposed to be a star, he hasn’t lived up to the hype this season. He has coughed up 13 actual and 12.6 expected home runs. He also owns a 4.61 ERA and a 4.17 xERA. Eight of Cease’s actual home runs allowed went to LHBs like Bauers. Meanwhile, Bauers has owned RHPs with power — he is hitting .239 against them with 23 extra-base hits and all 11 of his home runs. While that makes him a pinch-hit risk if the White Sox put in a LHP, they don’t exactly have many on their team.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +330 (23.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +397 (20.1%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +450 (18.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jake Bauers +450 at FanDuel
