After a weird Monday that saw both of our home run picks scratched from the lineup, I’m back to break down Tuesday’s slate. I want action on one member of the Astros, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the Nationals. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Orioles-Astros and White Sox-Nationals. We’re trusting Yordan Alvarez in a windy Minute Maid Park tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Tuesday, September 19
Orioles-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Isaiah’s Target: Yordan Alvarez at DraftKings
Some things just make sense. LHH Yordan Alvarez going yard against RHP Kyle Gibson with 11 mph winds blowing out Minute Maid Park tonight is one of those things. Alvarez has been one of the MLB’s most effective bats this year, mashing 28 actual and 27.8 expected home runs, 28 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Houston. His .299 xBA and .618 xSLG are both at or above the 97th percentile. His 93.3 mph average exit velocity and 52.4% hard-hit rate are both at or above the 95th percentile.
Alvarez’s matchup against Gibson makes this the perfect spot for him to go yard. The LHH has feasted against RHPs for 22 home runs and is slashing .295/.427/.628 against them. Likewise, Gibson has struggled against LHHs like Alvarez, coughing up 12 home runs to them while allowing them to slash .297/.346/.494. Alvarez owns a pair of base hits against Gibson across seven career plate appearances, which is good for .333/.444/.333, but with the wind blowing out, he should get some extra juice on batted balls.
You’ll find Alvarez priced at +300 (25%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. That isn’t the world’s most appealing price, but considering every other book, from public books like DraftKings at +250 (28.6%) and BetMGM at +240 (29.4%) to sharp books like Pinnacle at +253 (28.3%) has a better price, it’s hard to pass up on the functional odds boost we’re getting at FanDuel. Pair this home run pick with a wager on Alvarez’s total bases at odds of -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings to maximize your returns.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Yordan Alvarez +300 at FanDuel
White Sox-Nationals Home Run Pick
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
OddsShopper’s Target: Joey Meneses at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s White Sox-Nationals game. Although this one doesn’t have playoff implications, the model wants exposure to RHH Joey Meneses at a lengthy +800 (11.1%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. The 31-year-old designated hitter has knocked around 11 actual and 12.1 expected home runs this season. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Meneses draws an easy matchup against RHP Jose Urena. The 32-year-old righty has coughed up 12 actual and 11 expected home runs in just 28.2 innings pitched. Urena has struggled against both LHH and RHH, allowing RHH like Meneses to mash seven homes and slash .269/.377/.712. Meneses fares reasonably well against same-handed pitchers, hitting nine home runs against them while slashing .270/.318/.384.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +600 (14.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +765 (11.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +800 (11.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Meneses +800 at FanDuel
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
