What a week we’re off to! Monday’s column cashed a +520 ticket on Triston Casas. I didn’t write on Tuesday. Wednesday’s column cashed a +600 ticket on Ryan Noda while our Adam Duvall bet voided. We’re 2-1-1 on the week, which is a fantastic showing on the home run markets. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re targeting a pair of left-handed sluggers. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Left-Handed Power Today
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 6:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Pick: Jesus Sanchez at FanDuel
The Pittsburgh Pirates will start RHP Mitch Keller (8-3), who, despite his solid start to the season, has actually looked somewhat beatable. Keller owns a 3.62 ERA and 3.42 xERA, both of which are impressive, but has also allowed 12.7 xHR, the 18th-most of all pitchers. He has surrendered five home runs and 18 extra-base hits to left-handed batters this year, good for a .719 OPS allowed.
Let’s target one of Miami’s left-handed batters, outfielder Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez has 18 extra-base hits and six home runs across 132 at-bats this season, good for a .847 OPS. Of those big plays, 16 extra-base hits and five home runs came against RHPs like Keller. Sanchez ranks fourth on the Marlins in xHR (7). He usually hits fourth or fifth in the batting order against right-handed pitchers and is likely to do so with Miami pressed for depth.
The park factors also point to value here. We’re in Miami for this one, and while LoanDepot Park isn’t the friendliest for hitters, it’s been much better for left-handed ones. The park ranks tied for 18th for home runs allowed to left-handers — and seventh for triples and fifth for doubles. Let’s target Sanchez to hit a home run at odds of +680 via FanDuel Sportsbook — and to go over 1.5 bases — tonight. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jesus Sanchez +680 at FanDuel
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Mike Ford at FanDuel
With my pick in the books, let’s turn to OddsShopper’s: the model wants exposure to a batter who plays for the Seattle Mariners: Mike Ford. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Mariners will take on the New York Yankees and RHP Domingo German (4-4). German has been steady this year but has allowed 10.5 xHR, including one actual home run in each of his last four starts. He hasn’t faced Ford before, but Ford, a left-handed batter, has 3.8 xHR this year, all of which have come against RHPs. He owns a .731 OPS.
On-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this prop at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +637 (13.8%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mike Ford +680 at FanDuel
