As we steadily get closer to the Fall Classic, it can be easy to let other sports like football and basketball distract us from the MLB. But don’t fall down that path — plenty of value remains on the baseball betting markets. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target These Longshots Today
Washington Nationals vs. Oakland Athletics | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Keibert Ruiz at DraftKings
You may not care about this game. At this point of the season, most fans of the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals won’t, either. But I care about it because there are a pair of beatable pitchers on the mound — supported by similarly questionable bullpens — which makes targeting bats on either side intriguing. I’m locking down one of Washington’s bats because of RHP Luis Medina. He owns a 5.47 ERA, which is worse than his 4.41 xERA, but has also surrendered 12 actual and 13.4 expected home runs across 79 innings pitched.
Washington’s offense may not be good, but catcher and switch-hitter Keibert Ruiz has been solid. He leads the team in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .336, which slots in the 64th percentile. Ruiz has produced 13 actual and 11.3 expected home runs this year, which ranks second and fourth, respectively, on the roster. Of those 13 home runs, 12 have come against RHPs. Ruiz also ranks in the 99th percentile for both strikeout and whiff rate, so while he may not have the most power, he also won’t waste pitches.
Ruiz just homered against the Athletics last night and could build on that big play with another tonight. We’ve seen Ruiz hit back-to-back home runs twice this season, once in July and earlier in May. We can get exposure on Ruiz to go yard at odds of +550 (15.4%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pair that with a wager on Ruiz to record over 1.5 total bases at +120 (45.5%) via DraftKings, which you can boost up to +180 (35.7%).
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Keibert Ruiz +550 at DraftKings
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Ji-Man Choi at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on a somewhat surprising option. The model has faith in Ji-Man Choi tonight and believes he is undervalued at +1000 (9.1%). Over 84 at-bats, Votto owns a .348 xwOBA with 6 actual and 6.1 expected home runs. Note that 12 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Votto draws a matchup against RHP Zac Gallen, one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young Award. But Gallen’s 3.37 ERA is much lower than this 3.92 xERA, and he has coughed up 15 actual and 13.6 expected home runs this season. Nine of those home runs have gone to LHBs like Choi, who collectively own a .388 SLG against Gallen. Choi has three-career at-bats against Gallen without a hit, but there’s no time like the present for him to turn things around, and these odds are quite friendly for those seeking a longshot.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +650 (13.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +834 (10.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +1000 (9.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ji-Man Choi +1000 at FanDuel
