We’re well into the dog days of summer, and as heat waves and late afternoon storms sweep the nation, it can be hard to identify the best home run picks on a daily basis. That’s why we’re here to do the research for you. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re trusting Jose Miranda. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target the Twins & Nationals Today
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds | 6:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Jeimer Candelario at FanDuel
Someone is going yard against Cincinnati’s struggling RHP Luke Weaver today. The 29-year-old pitcher has allowed 14 home runs and 10.6 expected home runs this year, likely because he plays in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. However, his struggles against power extend to the road — he has allowed five home runs in seven starts outside of Cincinnati this year.
Let’s target one of Washington’s switch hitters, infielder Jeimer Candelario. Candelario ranks second on the Nationals in both home runs (11) and expected home runs (10.6). He has an impressive .814 OPS as well. Importantly, Candelario has 30 extra-base hits and 10 home runs against RHPs like Weaver, good for a .880 OPS.
It’s easy to forget about the Washington Nationals, especially this season, but sharp bettors know to look for value in overlooked spots. Candelario slots in at +560 (15.2%) on FanDuel to hit a home run. We can also buy him to record over 1.5 bases at +125 (44.4%) via DraftKings. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has these wagers priced at +428 (18.9%) and +122 (45.1%), respectively.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jeimer Candelario +560 at FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Jose Miranda at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the later end of the evening’s card: the model wants exposure to Minnesota’s Jose Miranda, who takes on the Kansas City Royals and LHP Austin Cox. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Although Cox has looked good in limited action thus far, that action has been, well, limited. We’ve seen Cox pitch 16 innings, almost all of which came as a reliever, and give up just one home run and 1.8 expected home runs — good for 1.01 HR/9. However, in 42.1 innings pitched for AAA Omaha this year, Cox has surrendered a whopping 11 home runs, good for 2.4 HR/9. Jose Miranda, a right-handed batter, stands to benefit from the matchup with Cox.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this home run bet at odds of +377 (20.9%). Our model thinks a fair price is +493 (16.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jose Miranda +560 at FanDuel
