After a fun Dinger Tuesday, we’re back to a more traditional MLB home run betting slate. Several targetable pitchers will take the mound, including Oakland LHP Ken Waldichuk and Colorado LHP Austin Gomber. I’m interested in backing a hot batter who takes on one of those pitchers, so let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Two Hot Bats Today
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics | 3:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Justin Turner at FanDuel
Although the Oakland Coliseum isn’t known for producing home runs, it’s good at creating extra-base hits, and we can find plenty of value in backing Boston’s Justin Turner to hit a dinger and record over 1.5 total bases. Turner enters Wednesday’s action on a 14-game hit streak. Three of his 14 total home runs have come during this stretch, during which he has improved his OPS from .793 to .831.
Turner and the Red Sox will take on struggling LHP Ken Waldichuk. The 25-year-old starter has allowed 40 extra-base hits and 15 home runs this season across only 75.2 innings pitched. His bloated 6.66 ERA is inflated relative to his .525 xERA, but even if he had been a bit luckier, he’d still be one of the MLB’s worst starting pitchers — and a must-target for batter props.
The fact we’ve got Waldichuk on the mound helps Turner, who has feasted against LHP this season. He owns a .941 OPS with 15 extra-base hits and five home runs across 100 at-bats against LHPs. Turner also ranks second on Boston’s roster in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .356. With most books taking action on Turner’s home run prop at shorter than +600 (14.3), let’s lock in the +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook for some extra value.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Justin Turner +680 at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 7:20 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Matt Olson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the later end of tonight’s slate. Matt Olson and the Atlanta Braves will take on RHP Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening. Nelson has surrendered 14 home runs this year, seven to LHBs and seven to RHBs, but his .530 SLG allowed to LHBs like Olson is higher than the .469 SLG allowed to RHBs. Note that three other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Olson has knocked in an incredible 30 home runs already this season, with 16 of them coming in his home park and 26 of them coming against RHPs like Nelson. Despite his incredible power, Olson ranks only third on the Braves in xwOBA at .392, which is still an elite mark — trying to outrank guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. just isn’t easy. Atlanta’s Truist Park ranks tied for seventh in park factors for home runs to LHBs like Olson over the last three seasons.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +215 (31.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +236 (29.8%), so we’re beating the market and getting a squeeze of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +240 (29.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson +240 at FanDuel
