It wasn’t my pick, but the OddsShopper model pick hit the last time I wrote this story, which was on Monday, cashing a +750 ticket on Alec Bohm. Let’s see if I can follow that one up with a winner of my own. Now it’s time to dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Rockies-Rays and Mets-Braves. We’re trusting Randy Arozarena to get the job done at home.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, August 23
Rockies-Rays Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Tropicana Field, Tampa
Isaiah’s Target: Randy Arozarena at FanDuel
The Tampa Bay Rays will take on LHP Austin Gomber and the Colorado Rockies at home today. Gomber has been notoriously terrible and ranks among the MLB’s worst starting pitchers this season, especially with regard to power. Gomber owns a 5.62 xERA and .493 xSLG, both of which slot in at the seventh percentile. While Gomber has been slightly better on the road, Coors Field alone doesn’t explain his struggles — he has still allowed opposing batters to hit .271 with eight home runs away from home. Gomber has surrendered 23 actual and 23 expected home runs.
Randy Arozarena is one of the best-positioned Rays to go yard against Gomber. He enters this game scorching hot, with two multi-hit games in a row. Despite the Trop’s reputation as a pitcher’s park, Arozarena still has nine home runs with a .437 SLG here, better than the .423 SLG he has recorded on the road. Further, Arozarena, a RHB, owns opposite-handed pitchers like Gomber. Arozarena has gone yard six times in 88 at-bats against LHPs with a .466 SLG. He has also tallied 19 actual and 19.3 expected home runs.
Arozarena isn’t the MLB’s best bat, but he is a solid value bet against Gomber. The two players haven’t met before in their careers, but Arozarena is well-equipped to exploit bad LHPs, especially those who rely on their fastball. Gomber throws his four-seam fastball 44.1% of the time; Arozarena has a 56% hard-hit rate against those pitches with a .263 xBA and .578 xSLG. Let’s trust Arozarena to go yard at odds of +400 (20%) via FanDuel Sportsbook — we can also mix in him to record multiple bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Randy Arozarena +400 at FanDuel
Mets-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
OddsShopper’s Target: Francisco Alvarez at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on one of today’s evening games: Mets-Braves. The model wants some exposure to Francisco Alvarez at odds of +630 (13.7%), a price you’ll find exclusively available via FanDuel. Alvarez has hit 21 actual and 17.3 expected home runs this year, 19 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Truist Park. Note that 11 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
This season hasn’t gone as planned for the Mets and Alvarez, but today’s matchup against the Braves and RHP Charlie Morton is a spot where they can inconvenience a rival. Morton has been one of Atlanta’s more vulnerable pitchers and owns a 4.79 xERA and .413 xSLG, both of which are well below the league average. Morton has also coughed up 13 actual and 13.8 expected home runs, with 19 hit well enough to clear the fences at Truist Park. Alvarez already has a home run against Morton across seven career at-bats, and his .714 SLG is also impressive.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +450 (18.2%). Our model thinks a fair price is +576 (14.8%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +630 (13.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Francisco Alvarez +630 at FanDuel
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