After another day of swings and misses, I’m eager for us to chalk up another winner. We were a day late on a Bryan Reynolds dinger and a day early on a Freddie Freeman dinger. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s home run picks, including Justin Turner, who we simply must bet on in this spot. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Two Red Sox Bats
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Targets: Adam Duvall & Justin Turner at DraftKings
The Boston Red Sox should have a field day tonight against the Oakland Athletics. The A’s will trot out RHP Luis Medina, who has an atrocious 6.37 ERA and a similarly bad 5.55 xERA. Medina has allowed 11 home runs and 12.1 expected home runs across his eight starts and 53.2 innings pitched, good for 1.85 HR/9. Of Medina’s 11 home runs allowed, nine came against RHBs.
The Red Sox have two primary sources of right-handed power: Adam Duvall and Justin Turner. Duvall missed a large chunk of the season but has five home runs and 8.3 expected home runs to his name with an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .326. Turner has 13 home runs and 13.1 expected home runs to his name with a .368 xwOBA.
Unfortunately, the ballpark could limit both Duvall and Turner. Although Fenway Park is generally hitter-friendly, it ranks only 18th in park factors for home runs to right-handed batters. As a result, I advise splitting your units between the markets for both batters’ home runs and total bases this evening. The best price for Duvall to hit a home run is the +350 (22.2%) at DraftKings; the best price for Turner is the +425 (19.1%) also at DraftKings. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Adam Duvall +350 at DraftKings
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Justin Turner +425 at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Julio Rodriguez at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in on one of the slate’s late games. The model wants action on Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez. Note that 29 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Rodriguez is one of Seattle’s best sluggers. He has 13 home runs and 12.2 expected home runs to his name this season, which ranks second and third on Seattle’s roster, respectively. He’ll take on Houston’s RHP Hunter Brown tonight. While Brown has often looked solid, he has still allowed nine home runs this year. They’ll play in Minute Maid Park, which ranks a solid 15th in park factors for home runs to left-handed batters.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +500 (16.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +635 (13.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +750 (11.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Julio Rodriguez +800 at FanDuel
