With an exciting slate of baseball on tap this evening, we have several games to target with home run picks. Tonight’s action at Angel Stadium stands out to me, especially with struggling RHP Luis Severino taking the mound for the New York Yankees. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Two Rising Stars Today
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees | 9:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah & OddsShopper’s Target: Mickey Moniak at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s model agrees that this home run pick is sharp, but I identified Mickey Moniak as a player to target before even looking at the oddsboard. FanDuel has set the odds for Moniak to hit a home run at an off-market +520 (16.1%) while just about every other book has odds of +370 (21.3%) or shorter. That’s a ton of market-based value, but there are further reasons to target Moniak tonight.
Moniak is a split-heavy batter taking on a struggling RHP. Moniak’s 10 home runs and 9.1 expected home runs aren’t world-beating numbers, but his .357 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is meaningfully high. Moniak has done most of his damage against RHP: he has an impressive 1.070 OPS against them with 23 extra-base hits and all 10 of his home runs. With Severino allowing LHB to record a .966 OPS with five home runs and 11 extra-base hits in 88 at-bats, Moniak stands out on tonight’s board.
Moniak comes into tonight’s game hot; Severino comes into it cold. Since the All-Star Break, Moniak has seven hits in 14 at-bats, although none of them went for extra bases. Severino’s two starts in July have yielded 19 hits and three home runs. Let’s back Moniak to finally send one over the fence and record two-plus total bases at odds of +125 (44.4%) via BetMGM. Don’t expect FanDuel to leave the +520 for him to hit a home run up forever.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mickey Moniak +520 at FanDuel
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah & OddsShopper’s Target: Riley Greene at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which I happen to agree with. The Kansas City Royals will start RHP Jordan Lyles again tonight, and Lyles has made home run bettors quite the profit — he has given up a whopping 20 home runs and 47 extra-base hits this year. Note that 12 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Greene, a 22-year-old outfield for the Tigers, has looked solid in the Show. He has hit six home runs and 6.4 expected home runs with a .358 xwOBA — the best mark on Detroit’s roster. All six of those home runs, along with 15 of his 18 extra-base hits, have come against RHPs like Lyles. Lyles himself has allowed 12 home runs and 23 extra-base hits to LHBs like Greene.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +400 (20%). Our model thinks a fair price is +519 (16.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Riley Greene +600 at FanDuel
