After a fun Dinger Tuesday, we slammed back down to Earth with some swings and misses on Wednesday. We now have a tiny Thursday slate to attack, so I’m not chasing yesterday’s losses by getting out over my skis with today’s picks. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets — Insider Access has one more on the card as well. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Target Two Undervalued Batters Today
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:45 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Cody Bellinger at FanDuel
I’m not sure what FanDuel has against player name today, but they’re criminally underpricing him across multiple markets. Bellinger comes in at +383 (20/7%) to hit a home run at Pinnacle and +400 (20%) to do so at DraftKings, yet we can buy him at +450 (18.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. There are a handful of other reasons to justify this play aside from the market-based value, however.
Bellinger takes on RHP Miles Mikolas tonight at Busch Stadium. Mikolas has given up 12 actual home runs this year, six to RHBs and six to LHBs, and 12.1 expected home runs. His 4.33 ERA and 4.95 xERA aren’t the worst in this rotation, but they’re also nothing to worry about. Meanwhile, Bellinger, a LHB, has 15 actual and 12.5 expected home runs to his name. His .323 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) isn’t good, but his .379 wOBA leads the Cubs.
Bellinger will get some help from the weather tonight. With triple-digit temperatures and a slow but steady breeze out to center field expected, a hard-hit ball to the right-field corner should stay fair and track a little further than usual. Bellinger has gone yard at this stadium twice before. Let’s split a unit on Bellinger to both hit a home run and record two-plus bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) also at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Cody Bellinger +450 at FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Steven Kwan at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the late game. It wants action on Cleveland’s Steven Kwan. Although Kwan only has four home runs to his name this year, the odds have just gotten a bit long. Note that two other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Kwan slots in at an improbable +1800 (5.3%) at FanDuel to go yard. While it’s unlikely, it’s likelier than that. Kwan has four home runs to his name this year, half of which have come since the All-Star Break. He draws a tougher-than-average matchup against RHP Dylan Cease, but Cease has coughed up 12 actual and 11.4 expected home runs. Kwan and Cease have faced off plenty of times, with Kwan recording five hits and one extra-base hit in 16 at-bats.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +950 (9.5%). Our model thinks a fair price is +1502 (6.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +1800 (5.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Steven Kwan +1800 at FanDuel
