Let’s go! We cashed a +280 ticket on Matt Olson yesterday, and Bo Bichette delivered for two-plus bases, securing another profitable day for the home run column. Hopefully, we can roll that momentum forward into tonight’s slate. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Today’s Late Slate Features Value
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds | 9:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: J.D. Martinez at DraftKings
What on Earth is RHP Luke Weaver going to do about J.D. Martinez tonight? The former Red Sox star has taken on Weaver in three plate appearances. Two of those ended in home runs. Weaver has generally struggled against RHBs with power, as he has allowed 29 extra-base hits and 13 home runs to them this year, good for a 1.030 OPS. Weaver has also struggled with the long ball this season and has given up 20 actual and 16.1 expected home runs.
A few other factors point to value here. First, although Weaver’s stats may look worse than they should be because he plays in Great American Ball Park, Dodger Stadium with the wind blowing out through center field isn’t much better. In fact, Dodger Stadium ranks a close second to Great American Ball Park in park factors for home runs hit by RHBs. Second, Martinez has shown more power than is immediately obvious. He has 25 actual but 26.7 expected home runs this year, 27 of which would’ve gone yard in Dodger Stadium.
It’s generally a good spot to buy Dodgers bats tonight, but instead of targeting Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts, let’s target a batter Weaver has been completely unable to stop. We can buy Martinez to hit a home run at odds of +310 (24.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the best price on the market. It’s even beating the +285 (25.9%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Make sure to get some exposure to Martinez over 1.5 total bases at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.D. Martinez +310 at FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 9:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Elly De La Cruz at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the opposite side of tonight’s Reds-Dodgers game: Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has amassed only 6 actual and 5.3 expected home runs since getting called up to the Show, but the books are starting to underrate him. Note that 11 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
De La Cruz will only cost you +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a fantastic deal for tonight’s game. He’ll take on the inexperienced RHP Emmet Sheehan, whose 6.75 ERA and 4.05 xERA leave some room for improvement. Sheehan has surrendered 4 actual and 4.1 expected home runs through six games started and 29.1 innings pitched. Three of those home runs went to LHB. Sheehan has surrendered nine home runs in the minors, five of which went to LHB. De La Cruz, a switch hitter, has struggled when playing as a LHB but has a good shot to turn that around tonight.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +475 (17.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +595 (14.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Elly De La Cruz +680 at FanDuel
