We have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap this evening. Only one game will get underway before 2 p.m. ET, leaving us with a ton of action to enjoy tonight. Although we have a ton of games in store, I’m turning my focus to a single one. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Trust Minnesota Lefties Today
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Max Kepler at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s Target: Joey Gallo at FanDuel
The Chicago White Sox will start RHP Lance Lynn today, so that means it’s time to get action on Minnesota’s LHBs. Lynn has allowed a monstrous 29 extra-base hits and 17 home runs to LHBs this season, good for a 1.045 OPS. He has given up a total of 24 home runs on 22.8 expected home runs, the most of any starter in Chicago’s rotation.
We’re targeting Max Kepler against Lynn because of his underrated power. Kepler ranks third on the Twins in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .337. That number slots in well above his .312 wOBA, which suggests he should benefit from positive regression soon. Kepler also ranks third on the Twins in both actual (14) and expected (13) home runs, trailing only Joey Gallo and Byron Buxton.
Kepler also benefits from the conditions in Minnesota today. Target Field ranks 12th in overall park factors for LHBs and 14th for home runs. The weather report suggests the wind will be blowing out toward right field as well. Split your action between Kepler to hit a home run at odds of +520 (16.1%) via FanDuel Sportsbook and to record two-plus bases at odds of +125 (44.4%) at FanDuel.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get $100 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Kepler +520 at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in the exact same game as mine. Like Max Kepler, Joey Gallo is a LHB taking on the underperforming Lynn. Kepler has owned RHPs this year with 21 extra-base hits and 14 home runs against them. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or the weather — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +260 (27.8%). Our model thinks a fair price is +317 (23.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +340 (22.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Gallo +340 at FanDuel
