What a night — I went 2-for-3 on Dinger Tuesday via OddsShopper Insider Access last night. I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into tonight’s games, of which we have several to attack. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets — Insider Access has one more on the card as well. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Trust Right-Handed Power Today
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 4:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: J.D. Martinez at FanDuel
If you follow my content, you know that we got exposure to Freddie Freeman on both Monday and Tuesday. Well, we’re pivoting off the talented LHB to ride with a red-hot RHB in J.D. Martinez. Martinez has gone yard in his last two starts, which haven’t come in back-to-back games, and has racked up six home runs in the month of July. Martinez ranks third on the Dodgers in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .381. He ranks second in actual home runs (25) but leads the team in expected home runs (26.7).
Martinez will benefit from both the opposing pitcher, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, and today’s conditions. Kikuchi has struggled to limit the long ball this year and leads the Blue Jays in actual home runs allowed (22) and expected home runs allowed (21.5). Kikuchi has already given up two-career home runs to Martinez and generally struggles against RHBs, allowing 29 extra-base hits and 17 home runs to opposite-handed batters. With today’s wind expected to blow out through center field, Dodger Stadium, already the second-friendliest stadium for home runs to RHBs, could be even friendlier.
You’ll find Martinez’s home run odds listed at +340 (22.7%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Over at DraftKings, that number sits at only +290 (25.6%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at +283 (26.1%). For whatever reason, FanDuel has chosen to play with fire today, so let’s lock in Martinez to both hit a home run and record two-plus bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) also at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.D. Martinez +340 at FanDuel
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Dansby Swanson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to one of tonight’s late games. The Chicago White Sox continue to host their cross-town rivals, the Chicago Cubs, over at Guaranteed Rate Field. Their park ranks sixth in park factors for home runs to righties, and with the wind blowing out through left field, it’s a great day to target RHBs. Oh, and I didn’t even mention that today’s starter, RHP Lance Lynn, has allowed 10 home runs to RHBs and leads the MLB in actual (28) and expected (27.1) home runs allowed.
Needless to say, Dansby Swanson has an easy task in front of him tonight. All of his numbers suggest he is up for the task: he leads the Cubs in xwOBA at .368 and ranks fourth in actual (12) and expected home runs (10.5). We’re chasing a bit with this home run pick because Swanson had a monstrous game on Tuesday, hitting a pair of home runs against RHP Michael Kopech, but to me, that just means Swanson is in good form. He has now ripped off three-straight multi-hit games through which he has improved his OPS from .753 to .793.
Swanson’s home run odds clock in at +450 (18.2%) at FanDuel Sportsbook but only +425 (19.1%) at DraftKings and +399 (20%) at Pinnacle. While it’d be stunning for Swanson to rip off three home runs in two days, it’d also be foolish to let his two-homer performance last night scare us off this market. At-bats are generally independent events: just because something unlikely happened in one recently doesn’t make it less likely to happen in the next. As with Martinez, I also like the total base prop, which we’ll find priced at +135 (42.6%) via DraftKings.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Dansby Swanson +450 at FanDuel
