With many teams traveling today, Thursday’s MLB slate is a small one. That’s especially true in the evening, as half of today’s games will get underway before 5 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Trust Superstar Sluggers Today
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | 7:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Rafael Devers at DraftKings
The odds we get this game in today aren’t high if you look at the forecast for Boston. But on the off chance we do, Rafael Devers is in a fantastic spot to turn his August around with a dinger. Devers leads the Red Sox with 26 actual and 27.7 expected home runs. He also leads the team in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .379, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. Although Fenway Park isn’t the best place for mashing home runs, Devers still has swatted 27 extra-base hits and 11 home runs here this year.
The books are split on who starts today for the Royals. Some list RHP Alec Marsh as the starter. In only 28 innings pitched, Marsh has already allowed 10 actual and nine expected home runs, eight of which would’ve gone over the fence at Fenway Park. Other books list LHP Austin Cox as the starter. Cox usually works as a reliever, and it’s possible that the Royals intend to use him as an opener for Marsh. Cox is a much tougher matchup and has allowed only one actual and two expected home runs across 27.2 innings pitched this year, but he has stuck in a game for more than four innings just once all season.
Despite the signs pointing to a solid game for Devers, we can find him at a reasonable price because of his cold August: he has started the month by hitting only .208. But because Devers’ actual wOBA (.357) still slots in below his xwOBA (.379), there is plenty of room for positive regression to get him out of this cold spell. Devers is hitting home runs against LHPs and RHPs at the same rate, so if you’re worried about some same-handed at-bats, don’t be. Lock in Devers both to hit a home run at odds of +340 (22.7%) via FanDuel and to record multiple bases at odds of -120 (54.6%) via DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Rafael Devers +340 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies | 10:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Mookie Betts at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on an elite Dodgers bat. The model believes that Mookie Betts is currently undervalued at odds of only +360 (21.7%). Betts has racked up a monstrous 31 actual and 28.3 expected home runs this season, which leads the team in both metrics. That’s all the more impressive considering he plays alongside such powerful batters. Note that four other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Dodgers and Betts will take on LHP Ty Blach. Although Blach has put together a not-terrible 4.85 ERA, his 6.61 xERA is one of the worst in baseball. Blach has allowed three actual and three expected home runs this season across 26 innings pitched, two of which have gone to RHBs like Betts. In fact, RHBs have hit an absurd .372 against Blach thus far. Betts can send both RHPs and LHPs over the fence with ease.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +280 (26.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +341 (22.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +360 (21.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mookie Betts +360 at FanDuel
