After a fun-but-hitless Dinger Tuesday (at least we got some bonus bets!), I’m back with some better home run picks for Wednesday’s slate. We’ve got a handful of vulnerable pitchers on tap this evening. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re backing a pair of Toronto Blue Jays with odds that are far too long. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Trust the Blue Jays Today
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants | 7:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Bo Bichette at Caesars
Isaiah’s Pick: Matt Chapman at DraftKings
Give me two members of the Toronto Blue Jays against RHP Logan Webb (7-6) tonight. Webb, who gave up only 11 home runs all of last season, has already allowed 13 this year. He ranks 11th-worst among qualified pitchers in expected home runs allowed with 14.3, more than the 10.3 expected home runs he allowed last year. Webb was always a below-average pitcher in hard hit percentage allowed, but the bottom has fallen out this year. He now ranks in the 14th percentile in the metric. Right-handed batters have done the majority of the damage, as they own 13 extra-base hits and eight home runs against Webb.
Let’s target Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman for Toronto. Bichette leads the Blue Jays in home runs with 14 but ranks second in expected home runs with 12.3. He trails Chapman in the expected metric, as Chapman owns 10 home runs but 12.4 expected home runs. The two will take the field at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, which ranks third for home runs to righties. Yet despite these factors, Bichette slots in at a whopping 11-1 (8.3%) at Caesars, while Chapman slots in at +550 (15.4%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. These two are getting severely undervalued tonight. Back them to go over 1.5 bases as well.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Bo Bichette +1100 at Caesars
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Chapman +550 at DraftKings
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers | 8:05 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Spencer Torkelson at FanDuel
Let’s to OddsShopper’s pick: the model wants exposure to Detroit’s first baseman, Spencer Torkelson, who takes on the Texas Rangers tonight. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The matchup may not look that attractive here, as Torkelson takes on RHP Dane Dunning (6-1), who has allowed only four home runs this year. However, all four of those home runs came at Globe Life Field, which ranks eighth for home runs to righties like Torkelson. Torkelson ranks second on the Tigers in both home runs (9) and expected home runs (8.9).
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +400 (20%). Our model thinks a fair price is +423 (19.1%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this at +470 (17.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Spencer Torkelson +470 at FanDuel
