Yes sir! We cashed our +500 ticket on Mike Moustakas last night, and I’m looking forward to keeping that momentum rolling into tonight. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today — we’re trusting Josh Donaldson. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Trust the Bronx Bombers Today
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET on AppleTV+
Isaiah’s Target: Rowdy Tellez at DraftKings
The Milwaukee Brewers and Rowdy Tellez will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in PNC Park. The Pirates will trot out RHP Osvaldo Bido (0-1). Bido has an impressive 3.45 ERA and .676 OPS allowed in the majors across 15.2 major-league innings pitched. Yet Bido has allowed 4.31 ERA and .697 OPS allowed in the minors. That includes 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs. Three of those home runs and 11 of those extra-base hits came against LHBs in only 44.9% of the plate appearances.
Tellez, an LHB, stands to benefit the most from the matchup. Tellez has hit 12 home runs this year, 11 of which came against RHPs. He hit four home runs against the Pirates last season, two of which came at PNC Park. Although PNC Park ranks only 18th in park factors to home runs to lefties, Tellez has hit five home runs in his 13 games started and 63 plate appearances here. He also has 25 extra-base hits here. Let’s lock him in to hit a home run and go over 1.5 bases.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Rowdy Tellez +500 at DraftKings
New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals | 8:15 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Josh Donaldson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the late slate: the model wants exposure to the recently returned Josh Donaldson, who takes on the St. Louis Cardinals and LHP Matthew Liberatore (1-2). Note that 13 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Liberatore has only allowed two home runs in 27.1 innings pitched this season, but that number doesn’t tell the full story. He has also allowed 3.6 expected home runs. Further, he has given up one home run and 12 extra-base hits to RHBs like Donaldson. Donaldson has three home runs in just 10 games and 19 plate appearances against LHPs so far this season.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +350 (22.2%). Our model thinks a fair price is +432 (18.8%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +480 (17.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Josh Donaldson +480 at FanDuel
