I love home runs, and so does OddsShopper’s market-based model. With prices varying wildly for these bets across the market, there’s often value to be found every night, which is why our tools come in so handy — they’ll help you find the off-market and mispriced odds that can help you turn a profit. The model even cashed a +420 ticket on Corey Seager last night! Let’s attack the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today, which include Trea Turner. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Trea Turner, Jake Meyers
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals | 8 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Pick: Jake Meyers
I took Freddie Freeman last night, so it was frustrating to see him held completely in check. In five plate appearances, Freeman was hit by a pitch, walked and struck out twice. Whatever — we’re on to Thursday. Let’s pivot to another series.
I want to get creative for this pick. We’re headed to Houston’s Minute Maid Park for this one. The stadium ranks a steady 16th in park factors for home runs, so although they aren’t an advantage, they also aren’t a disadvantage.
The Washington Nationals will start LHP MacKenzie Gore (3-5). Gore’s 4.04 ERA is solid, but his 4.32 xERA is less impressive. Gore has also allowed at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts. Opposing batters have swatted 11 home runs against him through 69 innings pitched.
Eight of Gore’s 11 home runs allowed have gone to right-handed batters, which is a problem tonight, as Houston’s lineup consists almost entirely of righties. With Yordan Alvarez still stuck on the injured list, backup outfielder Jake Meyers looks like a juicy target.
Meyers has six home runs in just 171 at-bats this season. He owns 13 home runs in 514 career plate appearances, eight of which have come in Minute Maid Park. We can buy him at generous odds of +830 (10.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Yet to sign up at FanDuel? You can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jake Meyers +830 at FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:30 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Trea Turner
The model is rolling after yesterday’s hit on Corey Seager. It wants action on another big-name player: Philadelphia’s Trea Turner. Note that 17 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Turner has seven home runs to his name already this year but none since his two-homer performance against the Detroit Tigers a few weeks back. He isn’t the best power hitter, but four of his home runs have come in games against right-handed starters like the one he’ll face tonight, RHP Ryne Nelson (3-3).
Again, this is a market-based pick. We’re honing in on Turner at odds of +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel because of where the other books are pricing him. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging +386 (20.6%). DraftKings is charging +400 (20%).OddsShopper’s model lists +507 (16.5%) as a fair market price.
We’re getting more than enough of a discount to warrant a wager on Turner at FanDuel. Although the park factors and power may not be there, the plate appearance volume certainly is, and it’s hard to justify hanging a number so long relative to where competitor books have set it. For more mispriced home run bets, check out OddsShopper Premium!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Trea Turner +560 at FanDuel
