College football may be dominating the airwaves today, but there is still plenty of value on the home run betting markets. I want action on one member of the Pirates, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on one member of the D-backs. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Yankees-Pirates and Cubs-Diamondbacks. We’re trusting Jack Suwinski at PNC Park tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Saturday, September 16
Yankees-Pirates Home Run Pick
When: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Isaiah’s Target: Jack Suwinski at WynnBet
The New York Yankees will start RHP Luke Weaver tonight, but the 30-year-old former D-back has been having a truly miserable season. He is on his third team this year alone. He has coughed up 26 actual and 21.1 expected home runs this year, 18 of which would’ve cleared the fences at pitcher-friendly PNC Park. His 5.79 xERA and .289 xBA are both in the sixth percentile. His 41.7% hard-hit rate is in the 32nd.
We’re fading Weaver by getting action on LHH Jack Suwinski in this spot. Weaver has been worse against RHHs than LHHs, but he has still surrendered 11 home runs to lefties, who are slashing .280/.349/.523 against him. Suwinski has hit 24 home runs against RHPs while slashing .228/.355/.521. He has hit a monstrous 25 actual and 25.6 expected home runs on the year, 25 of which would’ve gone yard at PNC Park.
We’re getting an off-market number for Suwinski at WynnBet. His home run odds are +370 (21.3%) or shorter just about everywhere, but Wynn is charging only +450 (18.2%). Although Suwinski is pretty much a dinger-or-bust batter, he has one home run and one double in four at-bats against Weaver. Pair this home run pick with a wager on Suwinski’s total bases at +120 (45.5%) at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jack Suwinski +450 at WynnBet
Cubs-Diamondbacks Home Run Pick
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
OddsShopper’s Target: Ketel Marte at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s Cubs-Diamondbacks game. The model wants a ticket on SH Ketel Marte at odds of +680 (12.8%), a price you’ll only find at FanDuel. The 29-year-old infielder has mashed 22 actual and 20.3 expected home runs this season. Note that 20 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Marte draws a matchup with RHH Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has coughed up 13 actual and 14.2 expected home runs this year, which is solid, but 16 of those hits would’ve cleared the fences at Chase Field. Hendricks’ 3.71 ERA is a touch better than his 4.08 xERA, which slots in the 53rd percentile. However, Hendricks’ .269 xBA allowed is in the 16th, as he struggles to strike out opposing batters. Expect Marte to get plenty of chances to send one over the fence.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +450 (18.2%). Our model thinks a fair price is +582 (14.7%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Ketel Marte +680 at FanDuel
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