This week has been a fun one. On Monday, the OddsShopper model cashed a +750 ticket on Alec Bohm. On Wednesday, I cashed a +400 ticket on Randy Arozarena. I didn’t write this column on Tuesday, so not only am I net up on the week, but I’m also yet to post a story with two losers. Let’s see if I can avoid that fate tonight. Now it’s time to dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Blue Jays-Orioles and Athletics-White Sox. We’re trusting Gunnar Henderson to get the job done at home.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Thursday, August 23
Blue Jays-Orioles Home Run Pick
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Isaiah’s Target: Gunnar Henderson at DraftKings
The Baltimore Orioles will line up against the Toronto Blue Jays at home on Thursday night. RHP Jose Berrios is scheduled to take the mound for Toronto, and that bodes poorly for the Blue Jays’ odds. Although Berrios has an impressive 3.39 ERA, he also owns a 4.51 xERA and .430 xSLG allowed, which are both in the bottom third of the MLB. Berrios has also coughed up 17 actual and 19.4 expected home runs, 19 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Camden Yards. Berrios pitched 7.2 scoreless innings in Baltimore earlier this season and is yet to face the Orioles again.
We’re backing Gunnar Henderson to get the job done against Berrios. Henderson, a LHB, has pummeled RHPs for a .260 BA and .539 SLG. He should fare well against Berrios, who has allowed a .264 BA and .431 SLG to LHBs. Henderson also ranks second on the Orioles in xSLG at .454, which ranks in the 70th percentile, and he is at or above the 90th percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Henderson has 21 actual and 19.9 expected home runs to his name this year, 21 of which would’ve counted for home runs at Camden Yards. He also fares well against every off-speed pitch that Berrios likes to throw except for the sinker.
We’re getting surprisingly long odds for Henderson. He enters this game on an eight-game hitting streak through which he has two home runs. Henderson owns a .875 SLG over the last seven days and a .509 SLG over the last 15. He is trending up as the playoffs approach, yet we can buy him at odds of +500 (16.7%) via DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard and +115 (46.5%) to record multiple bases. You’ll find those odds set to +420 (19.3%) and -110 (52.4%), respectively, at FanDuel. Let’s lock in both wagers for tonight’s slate and hope to make it two winners in a row.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Gunnar Henderson +500 at DraftKings
Athletics-White Sox Home Run Pick
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
OddsShopper’s Target: Luis Robert Jr. at FanDuel
It’s now time for OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on one of today’s evening games: Athletics-White Sox. The model wants action on Luis Robert Jr. even at odds of +330 (23.3%), a price you’ll find exclusively available via FanDuel. Robert has hit 33 actual and 32.5 expected home runs this year, 35 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Guaranteed Rate Field. Note that seven other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Although neither the Chicago White Sox nor the Oakland Athletics have playoff aspirations this year, Robert draws a fantastic matchup today. He’ll take on LHP Ken Waldichuk, who owns a .428 xSLG and a 4.95 xERA. Waldichuk has coughed up 18 actual and 18.8 expected home runs, with 21 balls hit hard enough to go yard at Guaranteed Rate Field. Even if Robert can’t take advantage of the soft starter, the slugger then draws a cast of relievers that are responsible for the MLB’s worst bullpen ERA of 5.51.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or bullpens — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +235 (29.9%). Our model thinks a fair price is +327 (23.4%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +330 (23.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Luis Robert Jr. +330 at FanDuel
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