We scored a wild ninth-inning cash at +550 on Keibert Ruiz on Saturday, and I’m off Sunday, so I’m hoping to roll that momentum from last week into this one. Both of today’s picks come from the same game, which will get underway at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Two Bets for Athletics-Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Oakland Athletics | 7:45 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Nolan Gorman at FanDuel
This season hasn’t gone as planned for the St. Louis Cardinals, but this week’s series against the Oakland Athletics should help them close the gap a bit — but it’s probably too little, too late. Regardless, it’s a fantastic spot to target the Cardinals’ bats, and no individual bat stands out more than Nolan Gorman’s. Gorman, a LHB, leads the Cardinals in both actual (24) and expected (23) home runs. He’ll look to keep that lead alive on Monday night — and he’ll benefit from 14 mph winds blowing out through right field.
Gorman takes on LHP J.P. Sears in a favorable matchup at Busch Stadium. Sears ranks among the league’s worst pitchers in both actual (25) and expected (27.9) home runs allowed. Sears has struggled mightily against same-handed batters this year, coughing up nine home runs and a .534 SLG against them in only 88 at-bats. LHBs are hitting .318 against Sears on the year. This bodes especially well for Gorman, who owns seven extra-base hits and three home runs against LHPs, good for a .518 SLG.
Gorman ranks among the Cardinals’ best bats in general. He ranks third on the team in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .364, behind Paul Goldschmidt but ahead of Nolan Arenado. He ranks second to Arenado in SLG at .487 but leads the team in xSLG at .511. Although Busch Field is generally more favorable to pitchers than batters, Gorman owns 14 home runs here and a .585 SLG. His cold spell over the last couple of days is likely why we can buy him at odds of +430 (18.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook to go yard and +135 (42.6%) to record multiple bases.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Nolan Gorman +430 at FanDuel
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:45 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Shea Langeliers at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the opposite side of tonight’s Cardinals-Athletics game. The model has faith in Shea Langeliers tonight and believes he is undervalued at +630 (13.7%). Langeliers has been one of Oakland’s better bats and owns 11 actual and 14.9 expected home runs this season. Note that five other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Votto draws a matchup against RHP Miles Mikolas, who hasn’t performed all that well this year. Mikolas owns a 4.20 ERA but a 4.88 xERA. His .412 SLG allowed and .463 xSLG allowed are both causes for concern as well. Mikolas ranks second-worst on the Cardinals in actual (13) and worst in expected (13.9) home runs allowed. Mikolas, a RHP, has coughed up seven home runs and a .410 SLG to same-handed batters. Langeliers, a RHB, owns 10 home runs and a .408 SLG against RHPs.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. BetMGM lists this home run bet at odds of +425 (19.1 %). Our model thinks a fair price is +582 (14.6%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +630 (13,7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Shea Langeliers +630 at FanDuel
