Let’s go! We cashed a +800 ticket on Joey Meneses yesterday, and, while we were wrong about Yordan Alvarez going yard, two of his teammates went yard against starter RHP Kyle Gibson. Today, I want action on a Dodger, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a Mariner. Let’s dive right into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Tigers-Dodgers and Mariners-Athletics. We’re trusting Freddie Freeman in Dodger Stadium this evening.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Wednesday, Sept. 20
Tigers-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at FanDuel
The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Detroit Tigers tonight, and it’s a good spot to target LHH Freddie Freeman. The Tigers will start RHP Reese Olson, whose 4.30 ERA isn’t as good as his 4.87 xERA, and whose .383 SLG is much worse than his .464 xSLG. He hasn’t had to face many truly tough offenses, but he coughed up five hits, six earned runs and a homer to the Braves earlier in the year. He has coughed up 13 actual and 15.6 expected home runs, 16 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium across 92 innings pitched.
We’re targeting Freeman here because the odds are too long. Although Freeman is better against LHPs than RHPs, he has still been great against righties — he has hit 14 home runs and is slashing .332/.416/.540 against them. Freeman has hit 26 actual and 25.4 expected home runs today, but 31 of his hits would’ve gone over the fence at Dodger Stadium. With 10 mph winds blowing out today, Freeman’s batted balls should get a bit of extra pop. Further, once Olson exits, Freeman will get a bullpen that has coughed up the fourth-most homers this year (78).
Olson’s splits point to some value here as well, and Freeman seems to be emerging from his recent cold spell. Olson coughed up five to LHH who are slashing .229/.323./.389 against him. Freeman is slashing only .222/.333/.278 over the last week but just went 2-for-5 with a base hit and a double on Tuesday. Let’s back him to go yard at +600 (14.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook and record multiple bases there at +105 (48.8%). Those are better numbers than you’ll find at other books.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Freddie Freeman +600 at FanDuel
Mariners-Athletics Home Run Pick
When: 3:37 p.m. ET
Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland
OddsShopper’s Target: Cal Raleigh at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in this evening’s Mariners-Athletics matchup. The Mariners are still trying to make a playoff push, and the model wants action on SH Cal Raleigh at a lengthy +350 (22.2%), a line you’ll find exclusively at FanDuel. The 26-year-old catcher has hit 28 actual and 26.1 expected home runs this season. Note that 24 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Raleigh has been one of Seattle’s most reliable bats this year, and he’ll get a chance to tee off against RHP Joey Estes in his major-league debut. Estes, a 22-year-old RHP, has been in Triple-A since early August but isn’t all that impressive of a prospect. He has surrendered 24 home runs across 27 appearances, allowing opposing batters to slash .223/.296/.414. He’ll benefit from playing in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum, but the weather calls for 7 mph winds blowing straight out.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +275 (26.7%). Our model thinks a fair price is +345 (22.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting some slight value by playing this MLB home run pick at +350 (22.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Cal Raleigh +350 at FanDuel
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