Today’s MLB card presents us with action from early afternoon onward. Unfortunately for those on the east coast, two of the best spots for home run picks are also two of the slate’s latest games, both of which start around 10 p.m. ET. Hope that isn’t past your bedtime! Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Two Late-Slate Targets Today
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:45 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Joc Pederson at DraftKings
A pair of factors make this a fantastic game to target. Although Oracle Park isn’t known as a hitter-friendly park, it just might be tonight. The forecast calls for 25 mph winds blowing straight out of center field, which could give just about any batter enough help to get over the fence. Further, the D-backs will start RHP Slade Cecconi in his first major-league appearance. Cecconi has struggled with the long ball in the minors, allowing 22 home runs last year and 23 so far this year. LHBs have accounted for 26 (57.7%) of those dingers.
San Francisco’s Joc Pederson is a fantastic LHB who thrives against RHPs. He leads the Giants in expected weighted on-base average at .380, which ranks in the 94th percentile. Pederson’s hard-hit rate of 52.4% also ranks in the 95th percentile. He missed some time earlier this year but still ranks tied for fourth on the Giants in both actual home runs (11) and expected home runs (12.3). All 11 of Pederson’s home runs this season have come against RHPs.
This game is full of uncertainty due to Cecconi’s lack of major-league experience and the weather, but the books are making a mistake by not pricing down San Francisco’s LHBs today. Pederson has a ton of value at odds of +425 (19.1%) via DraftKings to hit a home run and +110 (45.5%) to record multiple bases. Although the 31-year-old doesn’t often tally an extra base, he still has 19 extra-base hits against RHPs.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joc Pederson +425 at DraftKings
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Shea Langeliers at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the slate’s final contest. It wants action on Oakland’s Shea Langeliers, who has just 10 actual home runs but 14 expected home runs to his name. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Langeliers, a 25-year-old catcher, has been one of Oakland’s few good power hitters. Although he ranks well below the league average in xwOBA at .271, he still ranks third on the A’s in actual and second in expected home runs. He’ll line up against RHP Tony Gonsolin, who has allowed 11 actual and 11.3 expected home runs this season. Gonsolin has coughed up six homers at home and five to RHBs like Langeliers; Langeliers has hit eight homers on the road and nine against RHPs like Gonsolin.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +390 (20.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +489 (17%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +540 (15.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Shea Langeliers +540 at FanDuel
