After getting rid of the shift and implementing the pitch clock, the MLB is trending back in the right direction this season. I spent years tuning out baseball, but the sport is starting to get on my betting radar — especially the home run markets. OddsShopper’s market-based model is a fantastic assistant for these wagers, as it’ll help you find off-market and mispriced odds instantly. The model even cashed a +420 ticket on Corey Seager on Wednesday. Let’s attack the top MLB home run bets and picks from both myself and OddsShopper’s model today, which include Matt Olson. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Two Sluggers Stand Out Today
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 8:10 p.m. ET on AppleTV+
Isaiah’s Pick: William Contreras
We’ve got LHP Rich Hill (6-5) on the mound for the Pirates tonight, so that means it’s time to back one of Milwaukee’s right-handed sluggers to hit a home run. The 43-year-old Hill has allowed 11 home runs this year, all of which went to right-handed hitters. Hill has given up a home run in his last three starts.
Milwaukee’s leading slugger, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, is a left-handed hitter, so we’re pivoting off him and targeting catcher William Contreras. Contreras has eight home runs in 188 at-bats. Half of them have come against left-handed pitchers in only 32.4% of the at-bats. His OPS improves from .750 to .900 when lined up against lefties.
A few other factors point to value here. Contreras has two career at-bats against Hill. He has one hit, which went for a triple, against him. Also, the Brewers will host this game at American Family Field, which ranks seventh in park factors for home runs to right-handed hitters over the last three years.
Let’s ride with Contreras here. The asking price is a bit high at +450 (18.2%) on DraftKings Sportsbook, but you’ll find it a +431 (18.8%) on Pinnacle. We only have so many more chances to fade Rich Hill left before he inevitably retires, so let’s not pass up a chance to do it at DraftKings today.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: William Contreras +450 at DraftKings
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies | 7:20 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Matt Olson
After trusting a longshot in Trea Turner last night, OddsShopper’s model wants to trust a real slugger tonight: Atlanta’s Matt Olson. Olson owns odds of +255 (28.2%), so there isn’t a ton of value there, but there’s enough to warrant a wager. Note that 16 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
I don’t need to say much to prove that Olson is an elite power hitter. He has 19 home runs this year already, and ESPN projects him for 45 this season. He hit a home run in the first game against the Colorado Rockies last night as well. Olson, a lefty, will take on RHP Dinelson Lamet (1-3) tonight, whose 10.38 ERA and 4.62 xERA make him a logical target.
But as I say in every column, the on-field factors don’t play into the model’s reasoning — this is purely a market-based edge. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the price for this bet at +211 (32.2%). Our model thinks a fair price is +241 (29.3%), so we’re getting more than a full percentage point of edge by playing this at FanDuel. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you should — you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson +255 at FanDuel
