Before everyone was sweating out their NFL bets, I cashed a monster +800 ticket on Michael Harris II to go yard last night. Now, let’s turn to tonight’s slate, where I want action on one member of the Milwaukee Brewers, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Pirates-Braves and Brewers-Yankees. We’re trusting Christian Yelich on the road against RHP Luis Severino.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Friday, September 8
Brewers-Yankees Home Run Pick
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York
Isaiah’s Target: Christian Yelich at FanDuel
Although LHB Christian Yelich hasn’t flashed much power lately, he is my top home run pick for today. He still owns a solid.442 xSLG, which ranks second on the Brewers and is in the 62nd percentile, despite having hit only one home run from August to now. Yelich owns a 50.3% hard-hit rate, which is in the 91st percentile, and has an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph, which is in the 88th percentile. He has owned opposite-handed pitchers this year and is slashing .291/.388/.478 against them with 14 home runs. Yelich has 17 actual and 15.4 expected home runs.
We’re backing Yelich because he’ll take on RHP Luis Severino, who was an absolute pumpkin up until a few weeks ago. Still, he coughed up two home runs in his most recent outing. He has allowed 22 actual and 22.8 expected home runs this season in only 85.1 innings pitched. As a result, Severino owns a .502 xSLG and a 5.98 xERA, which are well in the bottom quintile. Most importantly, Severino has struggled when facing opposite-handed batters — LHBs have gone off for 11 home runs against him and are slashing .335/.398/.630 across 173 at-bats.
The odds for Yelich to go yard are solid because of his recent lack of power. We’re getting him all the way up at +470 (17.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which is a solid deal when compared to the +433 (18.7%) posted at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Let’s pair this with a wager on him to record multiple bases, which Pinnacle is pricing at +102 (49.5%) but is available at +105 (48.8%) via BetMGM. We could get screwed if Severino is in good form today, but his season stats this year suggest the likelihood of that happening is quite slim.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Yelich +470 at FanDuel
Pirates-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
OddsShopper’s Target: Jack Suwinski at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Pirates-Braves game. The model wants exposure to budding star LHB Jack Suwinski at odds of +390 (20.4%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Suwinski leads the Pirates with 23 actual and 23.3 expected home runs this year. He has 27 hits that would’ve cleared the fences at Truist Park to his name as well. Note that seven other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Pirates and Suwinski have a tough matchup against the Braves. Atlanta will trot out RHP Bryce Elder, who boasts an impressive 3.42 ERA and an 11-4 record. However, those numbers are a bit inflated — Elder owns a 4.32 xERA and a .400 xSLG, which are both below the league average. Elder has coughed up 15 actual and 14.8 expected home runs as well, 20 of which would’ve counted as home runs in Truist Park. Of those 15 actual home runs, eight have gone to LHBs, who are slashing .244/.316/.394 against him. With Suwinski owning a top-tier .472 xSLG, he is a solid home run pick for tonight’s slate.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +295 (25.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +366 (21.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +390 (20.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jack Suwinski +390 at FanDuel
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