I’m back with some more home run picks for today’s MLB slate. We cashed a -120 ticket on Francisco Lindor’s total bases on Thursday, and I had Friday off, so I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into today — and I’m hoping that the batter I target actually goes yard tonight. Let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies | 8:10 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Luis Robert Jr. at FanDuel
The Chicago White Sox will take on the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field tonight, and that means that it’s time to invest in Luis Robert Jr. The White Sox slugger is leading Chicago in both actual (32) and expected (31.5) home runs. His .523 xSLG leads the team and even ranks in the 92nd percentile. His 14.8% barrel rate also ranks in the 92nd percentile. Robert’s maximum exit velocity slots in the 88th percentile as well, so in a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field, Robert is in a great spot to go yard.
Robert will take on LHP Kyle Freeland, which bodes quite well for the entire White Sox offense. Freeland has coughed up the most actual (23) and the second-most expected (21.3) home runs on Colorado’s staff. His 4.93 ERA is bad, but his 5.45 xERA is even worse. His .497 xSLG allowed is in the seventh percentile, and his maximum exit velocity allowed is in the fifth. Robert has only one single in three at-bats against Freeland, but his .589 SLG against LHPs is encouraging and even outpaces his .554 SLG against RHPs.
The odds are steep, but they should be steeper at FanDuel. Robert slots in at odds of +230 (30.3%) at BetMGM and +250 (28.6%) at DraftKings, but you’ll find him at +255 (28.2%) at FanDuel. We can tell this line is at least slightly mispriced because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Robert at +246 (28.9%). The books have raised Robert’s total bases prop to 2.5, which doesn’t appeal to me, so limit your action to the home run markets for this pick.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Luis Robert Jr. +255 at FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins | 7:10 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Jack Suwinski at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which also comes on one of today’s evening games: Pirates-Twins. The model wants action on Jack Suwinski at +450 (18.2%), a price you’ll find only at FanDuel. Suwinski has been a bright spot for the Pirates and owns 21 actual and 21.3 expected home runs on the year with a .483 xSLG. Note that 11 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Suwinski draws a matchup against RHP Sonny Gray at Target Field. Gray has only coughed up five actual home runs in 24 starts and 136.1 innings pitched, but he owns nine expected home runs allowed this year. If he had played all of his games at Target Field, he would’ve coughed up seven. Gray’s 3.04 ERA is impressive, but it’s far better than his 3.84 xERA. It helps that Suwinski, a LHB, has recorded 20 home runs and a .494 SLG against RHPs this year.
That said, the model doesn’t care about splits or stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +310 (24.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +395 (20.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +450 (18.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jack Suwinski +450 at FanDuel
